Ethereum Q4 Outlook: The 50% big pump in July is not a coincidence, can the Coin Hoarding demand and ETF funding continue?

Ethereum (ETH) rebounded strongly by 50% in July, with institutional capital inflows even surpassing Bitcoin (BTC). As listed companies aggressively build positions in ETH (such as BitMine disclosing $2.9 billion in ETH holdings) and ETH ETFs attracting over $1 billion, coupled with a record total value staked (TVS) and nearly 30% of ETH supply locked, a supply crunch is emerging. However, the price of ETH has recently experienced increased fluctuations, combined with weakening expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the market's focus is on: can the massive on-chain ETH holdings bring substantial balance sheet benefits? In the context of passive investment (ETFs) dominating, is the strategy of listed companies actively hoarding ETH facing challenges? This article will deeply analyze the flow of ETH funds, institutional holdings dynamics, and their impact on Q4 market conditions.

Institutional funds surge, ETH inflow pressures BTC

There is no doubt that Ethereum (ETH) achieving a 50% surge in July is no fluke. A massive influx of institutional capital has flowed into the ETH market, with the scale of its capital inflow even surpassing that of Bitcoin (BTC). As public companies increasingly incorporate ETH into their investment portfolios, their balance sheet exposure to cryptocurrencies and potential returns have naturally become a focal point in the market. The core issue is: do these ETH holdings bring real balance sheet gains that are sufficient to support further accumulation? This question is particularly important, especially as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed cool down, which could potentially weaken the originally bullish Q4 market.

ETH fully locked, value flow becomes a mystery

Currently, ETH is showing a comprehensive locking situation: exchange reserves continue to decline, ETH ETFs attracted over $1 billion in July, and the total staking volume (TVS) has risen to a historical high of 36 million ETH. In short, while institutional demand surges, Ethereum is experiencing an all-around liquidity tightening, with nearly 30% of ETH supply already staked, and the classic supply tightening formula has been formed.

Where is ETH Heading? Comparison of Whale Holdings and ETF Returns

So, where do these locked ETH ultimately go? The publicly listed company BitMine (NYSE: BMNR) recently disclosed that it holds 833,000 ETH (valued at approximately $2.9 billion), making it the largest ETH holdings whale in the world. Interestingly, BMNR's stock price has fluctuated sharply recently, having pulled back to around $31. On the other hand, BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) has performed steadily, recording a +29.48% return rate as of August 1, 2025, assuming an initial investment of $10,000, which is now worth $12,948.11.

What signal does this send? Although BMNR is aggressively accumulating ETH on-chain, its stock price is constrained by macro fluctuations. In contrast, ETHA provides pure spot ETH exposure, closely tracking benchmark performance, without the management burden of on-chain holdings by large whales. This raises a key question for investors: why take on the risk of an individual stock (like BMNR) when ETFs like ETHA can offer pure on-chain asset exposure? In this context, as passive capital flows dominate the market, will the strategy of publicly listed companies actively accumulating ETH face the risk of becoming ineffective?

Ethereum Holdings Surge, Stock Performance Diverges

As the largest Ethereum whale on record, if the ETH price reaches $4000, the 833,000 ETH held by BMNR will yield approximately $432 million in unrealized gains. But this is far from the end. According to company filings, BMNR's goal is to hold 5% of the total circulating supply of ETH (around 120 million), which is 6 million ETH. This means their holdings need to expand 7 times from the current level.

The key lies in its coin accumulation strategy: BMNR does not rely on operating profits or stock price increases to raise funds; most of its ETH is acquired through issuing new shares. In other words, BitMine's coin accumulation plan is almost "immune" to short-term market fluctuations.

Key to Q4 Market: Can Coin Demand and ETF Funds Continue?

This divergence is particularly important at present. The market is focusing on the Q4 trend, hoping that a potential interest rate cut in September can stabilize risk appetite. However, as the Fed's hawkish stance becomes increasingly firm, Ether is under pressure, dropping 9% in the last week of July, nearly twice the decline of BTC.

To maintain upward momentum, the fate of Ethereum may depend on the willingness of whales to continue accumulating coins and the resilience of ETF capital inflows. If this capital can continue to absorb market selling pressure, ETH is still expected to break through the interference of macro noise, laying the foundation for a bullish Q4 market.

Conclusion: Ethereum (ETH) is undergoing an unprecedented institutionalization process, with large whales hoarding coins on-chain (such as BitMine's target holdings of 6 million ETH) and passive ETFs (such as ETHA) creating a dual-track drive, intensifying expectations of supply tightening. However, against the backdrop of uncertain Fed policy shift and increased market fluctuations, ETH prices are under short-term pressure. Whether Ethereum can maintain its strength in Q4 hinges on whether the hoarding demand from on-chain whales and the inflow of ETF funds can continue to absorb selling pressure. Investors need to closely monitor the dynamics of large ETH holders, ETF fund flow data, and macroeconomic trends to seize potential market turning points and on-chain asset allocation opportunities.