Weak non-farm data ignites gold buying! XAUUSD weekly outlook (8.4-8.8): $3440 target in sight, key support and resistance level analysis.

Due to the weaker-than-expected US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data putting pressure on the USD, gold (XAUUSD) surged strongly last week, closing above $3360 on Friday. The technical outlook suggests that after a brief pullback this week, gold prices are expected to continue rising, targeting $3440 and challenging the historical high (ATH) of $3500. This week, key data to follow includes the US ISM Services PMI (actual 51.5, slightly below expectations, unfavourable for gold) and jobless claims (actual 221,000, slightly above expectations, favourable for gold). Technical analysis indicates that the 4-hour chart confirms a shift to long positions, with the $3334-$3325 zone (breakout structure + Fibonacci 0.5) serving as strong support buy points, while $3365-$3373 (1-hour bearish order block) is limited to short-term short positions. Under the dominance of higher-level cycles, the strategy this week will focus on going long at dips.

The aftershocks of the Non-Farm Payrolls remain, and gold is expected to maintain bullish momentum at the beginning of the week

Last week's weak US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) significantly weakened the USD, driving a broad rise in assets priced in XXXUSD. Gold (XAUUSD) performed particularly strongly, closing above the 3360 USD mark on Friday. Technical patterns suggest that following a potential pullback, gold prices are expected to continue the bullish trend this week, initiating a new round of upward movement.

This week's target is $3440, aiming for the historical high of $3500

Based on the current technical structure and fundamental drivers, gold trading this week is biased towards buying on dips. The key upward target is anchored at 3440 USD, and if momentum continues, it may even challenge and break the historical high of 3500 USD (ATH), setting a new price record.

This week's economic data storm eye: ISM and unemployment claims affect gold prices

The following key US economic data will be released this week, which is expected to have a significant impact on XAUUSD:

• August 5 - ISM Services PMI:
  • Actual Value: 51.5 ( vs Expected 50.8)
• Interpretation: The stronger-than-expected expansion in the services sector indicates economic resilience, providing a short-term boost to the USD and putting pressure on gold.
• August 7 - Initial Jobless Claims:
  • Actual Value: 221,000 ( vs Expected 218,000 )
  • Interpretation: The slight increase in the number of claims suggests a slight softening in the labor market, which may strengthen the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve, favourable for gold.

High Time Frame (HTF) Technical Outlook for Gold: Upward Trend is Solid

As mentioned in the previous weekly report, gold is currently moving towards the external liquidity zone at the monthly level, and the current trend perfectly aligns with this prediction. It is expected that this round of rise will continue, targeting $3440, and ultimately testing the previous historical high (ATH) of $3500.

Key Technical Levels and Strategies for Gold This Week (8.4-8.8)

• 4-hour chart positioning: Clearly shows characteristics of a shift towards long positions.
• Key Buy Zone (Strong Support): 3334 - 3325 USD range. This area is a key "Breaker Block" and coincides with the Fibonacci 0.5 pullback level, forming the strongest long positions defense line of the week.
• Potential Sell Zone (Short-term only): There is a "Bearish Order Block" in the 1-hour chart in the 3365-3373 USD range. Special Attention: Given that the overall trend has turned bullish, this zone is only suitable for those seeking short-term (Scalp) short positions, with higher risk.

Trading Strategies and Operational Recommendations

In summary, although there are both long and short trading opportunities for gold this week, the buying on dips strategy is significantly better than selling on rallies. The lower time frame (like 1 hour) suggests short-term selling pressure, but the higher time frames (4 hours and above) still firmly support long positions in gold.

Key Resistance Level:

• $3365-3373 - 1-hour bearish order block (Bearish OB), short-term short positions area

Key Support Level:

• $3334-3325 - 4-hour breakout structure zone (Breaker Block) combined with Fibonacci 0.5 pullback level, core buying area

Conclusion: Gold (XAUUSD) is maintaining a bullish tone this week under the support of the lingering effects of the Non-farm Payrolls and a weaker dollar, with $3440 as the primary target, and a challenge to the historical high of $3500 is expected. Traders should focus on placing long positions in the strong support zone of $3334-$3325, while the resistance zone of $3365-$3373 is limited to short-term short positions for aggressive traders, and strict risk control is necessary. The unfavourable impact of the ISM Services PMI has been partially digested by the market, while the slightly better-than-expected unemployment claims data may provide moderate support for gold prices. This week's operations need to closely align with real-time data releases and price reactions at key levels, and under the high-level cycle bullish trend, buying on dips remains the core strategy.