ChatGPT Predicts XRP Price: Low Safety Rating Triggers Institutional Selling Pressure, 3 Dollar Level Breached, 50-Day Moving Average Becomes Crucial Line for Bulls and Bears

ChatGPT's comprehensive analysis of 22 real-time indicators shows that XRP has been impacted by unfavourable information from security reports (XRPL ranks last in security ratings among 15 public chains), with prices falling by 2.69% to $3.0047, hitting a daily low of $2.9404. Despite the unusual trading volume of 122 million XRP indicating deep institutional participation, the 50-day moving average ($2.9422) is facing severe tests. The technical indicators present conflicting signals: the MACD histogram turning positive suggests momentum accumulation, but the RSI approaching the oversold zone (46.45) reflects short-term pressure. ChatGPT provides three scenario forecasts for the next 90 days, stating that recovering to $3.25 requires first defending the key support at $2.94.

Security Rating Explosion Triggers Institutional Rebalancing

• Core Unfavourable Information: The latest security assessment report shows that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has the lowest safety rating among 15 mainstream public chains, raising concerns among institutions about the reliability of the underlying technology.
• Ripple effect: XRP saw a precise 2.69% sell-off (opening $3.0877→current $3.0047) after the report, and the crypto market was liquidated by $360 million (BTC fell below $116K) during the same period. XRP's relative resilience highlights the resilience of its fundamentals.
• Long-term trend unbroken: XRP maintains an upward channel of $2.09-$3.10 in 2025, with the current pullback being a technical correction after breaking through $3.10 (July high).

Technical Analysis: Bull and Bear Indicators Caught in Depth Game

• Key Moving Averages:
  • Pressured at the 20-day moving average ($3.1042) +3.3%
  • Defend the 50-day moving average ($2.9422) -2.1% → Today's bull-bear dividing line
  • Well above the 100-day ($2.7218) and 200-day moving averages ($2.4464)
• Momentum Indicator:
  • MACD: Located below the zero axis at -0.0290 (bearish), but the histogram has turned positive to 0.0593, indicating potential bullish momentum accumulation.
  • RSI: 46.45 approaching Oversold area, usually triggers a rebound.
• Trading Volume Analysis: The single-day trading volume is 122 million XRP (approximately $366 million), with unusual volume confirming institutional reallocation behavior.
• Volatility Warning: ATR (Average True Range) reaches 2.4120, indicating that the risk of high price volatility persists.

On-chain Data: Huge Trading Volume Validates Institutional Game

• Market Cap: $179.44 billion (high level stabilizing)
• 24H Trading Volume: $7.48 billion → Trading Volume to Market Cap Ratio reached 10.15%, a recent peak.
• Market Share: 4.57% (+0.17%), outperformed the market Data indicates that institutional funds are experiencing intense turnover amid uncertainty, and abnormal trading volume often signals a trend reversal.

Public Opinion Analysis: Contradictory Signals Under the Shadow of Safety

• Community Heat: Total interactions of 10.51 million (+1.72 million), mentions of 47.3 thousand (+18.4 thousand), attention rising against the trend.
• Emotional Divergence: Positive sentiment accounts for 81% (maintaining a high level), but AltRank has dropped to 542, and Galaxy Score has retreated to 52, reflecting that safety concerns are suppressing short-term expectations.
• Focus Topic: a. Teucrium CEO predicts Ripple will be among the top 20 global banks (holding 4 billion XRP). b. Despite the low security rating, the tokenization infrastructure potential of XRPL's RWA is still widely discussed. c. Brad Garlinghouse stated a priority on acquisition expansion rather than ETF applications.

Key Support Battle: Three Scenario Simulations

1. Support defense rebound (probability 40%)

• Successfully defended the $2.94-$2.96 support zone
• Alleviate security concerns and promote price surge to $3.25-$3.50 (increase of 8-17%)
• Trigger conditions: Institutional confidence recovery + Trading Volume normalization

2. Continuation of Range Oscillation (Probability 35%)

• Consolidation in the $2.80-$3.20 range
• Technical indicator repair + XRPL security upgrade promotion
• Use time to exchange for space to digest unfavourable information

3. Depth pullback risk (probability 25%)

• $2.94 support breached triggered selling
• Drop to $2.72-$2.85 (fall 8-12%)
• Need to build a defense line at the 100-day moving average ($2.72)

ChatGPT Conclusion: 90-day path points to $3.25-$3.50

The short-term trend depends on the defense outcome of the key support at $2.94:

• If it holds steady: It is expected to challenge the psychological resistance of $3.25 within 90 days, with a final target of $3.50+ (subject to the progress of security upgrades).
• If it breaks: A depth pullback to $2.72-$2.85 will form a "golden pit", providing an opportunity for the next round to impact $4.80+ (with institutional confidence returning as a prerequisite).

Conclusion

XRP is undergoing a double test from both technical and fundamental perspectives. The poor security rating exposes underlying infrastructural risks and stands in stark contrast to the massive institutional turnover on-chain, while the 50-day moving average ($2.9422) has become the frontline battleground for bulls and bears. The MACD histogram turning positive and the RSI approaching the oversold zone suggest a brewing rebound momentum, but reclaiming lost ground requires meeting two major conditions: 1) effectively resolving market trust issues regarding XRPL's security; 2) breaking through the $3.10 resistance zone with significant volume. Investors should closely monitor the outcome of the $2.94 defense battle and the progress of security upgrades; a breakdown would require waiting for stabilization signals in the $2.72-$2.85 region. In the medium to long term, Ripple's banking strategy and RWA layout remain the core narrative supporting its value.