XRP Price Prediction: On-chain data reveals three bullish signals! Supply profit ratio hits a new low, short-term wallets are accumulating against the trend, technical patterns hold key support.

XRP fell 5.4% in the last 24 hours, with a weekly drop of over 10.3%, following the market pullback and facing sell pressure from whales and short-term selling. However, on-chain data and technical indicators are signaling divergence: 1) The Percent Supply in Profit has dropped to 93.53%, a near two-week low, and historical data shows that this indicator often triggers short-term rebounds when it hits the bottom; 2) The proportion of short-term wallets holding coins for 1-3 months surged from 5.81% to 9.28% within a week, indicating new funds are entering at lower prices; 3) The daily chart remains steady within the ascending triangle's lower band of the $2.96-3.08 range. Meanwhile, the fundamentals are also receiving favourable information: the Wellgistics platform is promoting compliance XRP payments at 6,500 pharmacies across the United States, accelerating real-world use cases.

Price under pressure but on-chain indicators reveal clues, supply profit ratio hitting new lows suggests rebound opportunity

(XRP price and profit supply percentage | Source: Glassnode)

XRP has fallen by 5.4% in the past 24 hours, with a decline of 10.3% over the past week, in line with the overall correction in the cryptocurrency market, as whales exit and short-term selling pressure creates significant stress. However, beneath the surface, key on-chain indicators are signaling that the trend has not been broken. On August 17, the Percent Supply in Profit for XRP dropped to 93.53%, the lowest level in nearly two weeks. In contrast, just ten days earlier on August 7, this indicator was as high as 98.26%. A significant decline of nearly 5 percentage points typically indicates a reduction in the number of holders with substantial unrealized profits. This is crucial—when the chips in a highly profitable state in the network decrease, profit-taking behavior will slow down. Historical patterns show: after this indicator fell to 94.75% on August 5, the price of XRP skyrocketed from $2.97 to $3.32 in just two trading days; after the indicator dipped to 94.37% on August 11, the price similarly rebounded from $3.13 to $3.27. The current indicator is approaching a half-month low, laying the groundwork for yet another short-term rebound.

Short-term coin holders are counter-trend accumulating, with the wallet share skyrocketing by 60% in one week from January to March

(XRP price and HODL Waves | Source: Glassnode) Wallet behavior data provides further support for rebound expectations. According to Glassnode's HODL Waves, after XRP hit a low of $2.77 in August, the proportion of addresses holding coins for 1 to 3 months significantly surged. On August 1, this group accounted for only 5.81% of the total XRP supply. By August 17, this proportion had jumped to 9.28%, an increase of nearly 60%. This change indicates that recent buyers are choosing to hold coins rather than sell – they have withstood market volatility and the pressure of whale sell-offs to maintain their positions. Such behavior often reflects a strengthening belief in holding. These short-term holders are entering the market during pullbacks to accumulate, and this pattern often signals a precursor to trend reversals. The last time this group grew so rapidly, the XRP price began a sustained upward momentum within a week.

Technical Analysis: The daily chart holds the lower band of the ascending triangle, with $3 being the dividing line between bulls and bears Bringing the perspective back to the daily chart, the XRP price is still holding within a rising triangle pattern - a typical bullish continuation pattern. The current price is oscillating in the range of $2.96 to $3.08, just above the support of the lower band of this triangle. This position is crucial:

1. Key Support Zone: The range of 2.96-3.08 USD is the bottom line to maintain the current bullish technical structure, especially 3 USD is an important psychological level.
2. Meaning of the pattern: As long as the price does not effectively fall below the lower band of the triangle (currently around $2.96), the bullish trend has not been broken.
3. Rebound Momentum: Combining the low supply-to-profit ratio and the on-chain signals of short-term wallet accumulation, the probability of the price gaining rebound momentum in this support area increases.
4. Upward Target: If it can stabilize here and break through the upper band resistance of the triangle (currently around the 3.30-3.35 USD area), it will confirm the continuation of the upward trend and open up greater upward space.

Conclusion

Despite the significant pullback in XRP's short-term price due to market sentiment, deep on-chain data (the supply profit ratio has fallen to a near two-week low, and addresses holding coins from January to March are increasing against the trend) and technical patterns (the daily chart firmly holding the lower band of the ascending triangle) are both signaling resilience. Historical patterns indicate that the current level of the supply profit ratio often precedes a short-term rebound, while the surge in the proportion of short-term holders is seen as evidence of "smart money" buying on dips. Coupled with Wellgistics driving a significant practical scenario breakthrough by enabling 6,500 US pharmacies to accept XRP payments, the fundamental support is strengthening. Investors need to closely monitor the defense strength of the key support area between $2.96 and $3.08. If this area successfully halts the decline and is accompanied by a rebound in on-chain activity, XRP is expected to be the first to initiate a rebound trend and regain its upward trajectory. However, if the market continues to deteriorate leading to a loss of key support, further pullback risks should be anticipated.