SEC delays Spot ETF approval causing XRP to fall below the psychological support of $3! October is a key month, the fate of Ripple's banking license and ETF awaits revelation | XRP price prediction

The price of XRP has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3 for the first time since the SEC and Ripple withdrew their appeal, reaching a low of $2.9449, completely pulling back the 10.94% rise from August 7. This decline is primarily due to the SEC's delay in approving a series of spot ETFs, including Solana, which has weakened market expectations for the approval of the XRP spot ETF before the October deadline. October is crucial for Ripple: in addition to the XRP spot ETF decision, its application for a national bank charter submitted on July 2 will also be ruled on by the OCC by the end of October. If both are approved simultaneously, it will greatly boost the adoption rate of XRP and RLUSD. Technically, XRP is supported at the 50-day moving average, with $3.1 being the recent dividing line between bulls and bears.

SEC's delay in ETF approval severely impacts XRP, October may become a historic turning point for Ripple

XRP price is under pressure due to news related to cryptocurrency Spot ETF, breaking below the critical psychological support level of $3 (for the first time since SEC and Ripple withdrew their lawsuit appeal), dipping as low as $2.9449, completely reversing the 10.94% rise on August 7. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart revealed that the SEC has delayed decisions on a series of Solana Spot ETF approvals. This move dampens market hopes for the approval of the XRP Spot ETF before the final deadline in October. October is becoming a decisive moment for Ripple and XRP. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan pointed out: "All Spot ETFs, including the XRP Spot ETF, have been delayed until late October. Meanwhile, Ripple's application for a national bank charter submitted on July 2, 2025, should typically receive a decision within 120 days according to OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) guidelines (by the end of October). A lot may happen in October." Approval of the XRP Spot ETF and OCC granting Ripple a banking charter could significantly increase the adoption rates of XRP and stablecoin RLUSD, potentially driving token prices to new all-time highs.

XRP Technical Analysis: The 50-day moving average is a key defense line, and $3.1 will determine the short-term direction.

XRP fell 0.88% on August 18 (Monday), continuing the previous trading day's decline of 0.59%, closing at 3.0629 USD. Despite the decline, XRP's performance was still better than the overall cryptocurrency market (which fell 1.59%, with a total market cap dropping to 3.87 trillion USD). The short-term price outlook for XRP depends on several key catalysts:

• XRP Spot ETF Progress
• The dynamics of central banks/institutions incorporating XRP into reserve assets.
• Progress of Ripple obtaining a banking license in the United States
• News related to cooperation with SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication)
• Dynamics of cryptocurrency regulatory legislation (e.g., the CLARITY Act) If it can break through the resistance level of $3.1, XRP is expected to test the high point of $3.3826 on August 8. If it can consistently hold above this price level, it may pave the way to challenge the historical high of $3.6606 on July 18 (Binance data). However, if the price falls below the $3 mark, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) will become the next key support. If this moving average is also broken, bears may target the low point of $2.7254 on August 3. On August 18, the support of the 50-day EMA successfully prevented a larger decline.

Strategy invests an additional $51.4 million to buy the dip on BTC and announces equity ATM strategic guidance.

As XRP falls due to negative ETF news, Bitcoin (BTC) benefits from a rebound in institutional demand, bouncing back from the key support level of $115,000. Michael Saylor, founder and chairman of Strategy (MSTR), announced the company's latest purchase action: "Strategy acquired 430 BTC for approximately $51.4 million, with an average price of about $119,666 per coin, achieving a return of 25.1% on BTC holdings since 2025. As of August 17, 2025, we hold a total of 629,376 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $46.15 billion and an average price of about $73,320." Saylor also released an updated MSTR equity ATM (at-the-market issuance) strategic guidance, aimed at providing greater flexibility for the company's capital market strategy execution. The guidance details the BTC purchasing strategy at different adjusted net asset multiple (mNAV) levels (mNAV = company enterprise value / BTC holding net assets):

• mNAV > 4.0 times: Actively issue MSTR stock to acquire Bitcoin.
• mNAV is between 2.5x and 4.0x: Opportunistically issue MSTR stock to purchase BTC.
• mNAV < 2.5x: Strategically issuing MSTR stock for: (1) paying debt interest, (2) paying preferred stock dividends, (3) other circumstances beneficial to the company.
• mNAV < 1.0 times: Consider issuing credit to repurchase MSTR shares. This guide provides the market with an in-depth understanding of MSTR's buying strategy, as its purchasing behavior may affect the supply and demand balance and price trends of BTC. MSTR's purchase closely follows the announcement by Japanese listed company Metaplanet regarding its BTC acquisition plan until 2027. The institutional demand for BTC has played a key supporting role during the volatile market conditions.

Spot ETF eight-day inflow trend interrupted, capital flow affects BTC price trajectory

On August 15 (Friday), the US BTC Spot and ETH Spot ETF market reported a net outflow, ending a previous eight-day trend of inflows. Notably, the surge in demand for ETH Spot ETF propelled ETH to approach its historical high of $4,870 on August 14 (Binance data), highlighting the impact of Spot ETFs on price movements. MN Capital's Chief Investment Officer Michael van de Poppe stated: "In the past week, nearly $3 billion has flowed into ETH ETFs, with assets under management (AUM) surging by 35%, pushing prices to test historical highs. ETFs have a significant impact, and altcoins have unlimited potential in the future." On August 18 (Monday), the US BTC Spot ETF market may see further outflows. According to Farside Investors data:

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had a net outflow of 65.7 million USD.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) net inflow of 12.7 million USD. During the wait for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) data, the total net outflow of the US BTC Spot ETF has reached $53 million, which may continue the outflow trend for two trading days. The BTC capital flow trend is crucial to its price trajectory.

BTC Outlook: Economic Data, Federal Reserve Policy, and ETF Fund Flow Direction

BTC fell 1.03% on August 18 (Monday), closing at USD 116,284, rebounding after breaking the critical support level of USD 115,000 for the first time in eleven trading days. The short-term price direction depends on the following key events:

• Federal Reserve monetary policy stance: FOMC meeting minutes, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, speech by Chairman Powell.
• US Services PMI and unemployment claims data.
• Legislative progress in Congress (especially the CLARITY Act).
• BTC Spot ETF fund flow. Potential Scenario Analysis:
• Bearish scenario: Legislative obstacles, rising recession risks in the US, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and continuous outflows from ETFs. These factors combined may drag BTC down towards the 50-day EMA and threaten the $100,000 support level.
• Bullish scenario: Progress on the "CLARITY Act", reduced risk of a U.S. recession, dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, and a resurgence of ETF inflows. In this case, BTC may challenge the historical high of 123,731 USD.

Conclusion

The SEC's delay in approving the spot ETF has caused a drop in XRP, highlighting the instantaneous impact of regulatory trends on the cryptocurrency market. However, October will become a "life and death month" for XRP: the bank license ruling and the final ETF decision could create a favorable overlapping effect, and maintaining the 50-day moving average on the technical side will preserve the potential for a rebound. Regarding BTC, the continued buying by institutions like Strategy and the capital flow from ETFs create a dynamic balance, with the short-term direction depending on signals from the Federal Reserve's policy and economic data. Investors need to closely monitor four key variables: 1) the ruling results on the XRP spot ETF and Ripple bank license in October; 2) the progress of the CLARITY Act in Congress; 3) the Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in September and statements from the Jackson Hole annual meeting; 4) signals of a reversal in the capital flow for BTC/ETH spot ETFs. Before regulatory clarity, the market may continue to exhibit high volatility, with the loss or gain of key support levels determining short-term advantages for bulls or bears.