Analysis of Stablecoin Market Data After the USDC Crisis

Recently, USDC faced a liquidity crisis, once dropping to 0.8788 USD. Although the crisis has been resolved, this incident has brought many changes and reflections to the stablecoin market. By analyzing market data from March 11 to 18, we found:

1. The market value of fiat stablecoins has generally risen, while the market value of crypto-backed stablecoins has comprehensively declined, indicating that market confidence in fiat stablecoins remains relatively strong.

2. The market cap of USDC has fallen to below 47% of USDT. The market cap of TUSD has increased by over 54%, the largest increase. The market caps of various stablecoins such as USDT, DAI, and LUSD have also seen growth.

3. On March 18, the exchange's stablecoin inventory was approximately 21.461 billion USD, down 11.02% from the 11th, with a rapid outflow of funds.

4. The total locked value of major stablecoins on Uniswap v3, Curve, and AAVE v2 decreased from $3.464 billion to $3.297 billion, a drop of 4.83%.

5. On March 11, the trading volume of stablecoin trading pairs in DEX reached 23.17 billion USD, far exceeding the usual levels. The trades between USDC, USDT, and DAI constituted the main liquidity path, reflecting users' confidence in fiat stablecoins.

Fiat stablecoin market value rises, crypto asset collateral stablecoins decline

The USDC crisis has triggered fluctuations in the market value of various stablecoins. Compared to March 10, the market value of USDC fell by 2.5% on March 11, while SUSD, DOLA, MAI, and USTC saw declines ranging from 2.8% to 5.0%. The market values of ALUSD, BUSD, FRAX, MIM, USDJ, and FPI also experienced slight declines. Conversely, the market values of 9 stablecoins increased, with USDP rising over 11%, and DAI, FLEXUSD, LUSD, and TUSD seeing increases between 1.0% and 3.5%.

The market value changes from the 18th compared to the 11th mostly continued the previous trend. TUSD saw the highest increase of over 54%, and USDT also rose by more than 6%. USDC, BUSD, MIM, SUSD, DOLA, USDX, and ALUSD continued to decline, with MIM experiencing the highest drop of over 17% and USDC falling by more than 14%. USDP, GUSD, FLEXUSD, and USDD reversed from rising to falling.

From the perspective of average market value changes, fiat stablecoins have shown an upward trend, with an average increase of 1.83% from the 10th to the 11th and 2.41% from the 11th to the 18th, indicating that the market's confidence in fiat stablecoins remains relatively strong. In contrast, the average market value of stablecoins collateralized by 9 types of crypto assets has declined overall, with average decreases of 0.74% and 1.42%, respectively.

Algorithmic stablecoins demonstrate a certain level of elasticity, with an average decrease of 1.26% on the 11th compared to the 10th, but an average increase of 2.82% on the 18th compared to the 11th, marking the largest increase.

USDC market cap drops below half of USDT, fiat stablecoins still dominate

Currently, there are over 100 types of stablecoins in the market, with a total market value of approximately 133.388 billion USD. As of March 18, USDT remains the leader, with a market value of about 76.74 billion USD, followed by USDC, with a market value of about 36.03 billion USD. Together, they account for 85% of the total market value of stablecoins. After this crisis, the market value of USDC has fallen below 47% of that of USDT.

Apart from USDT and USDC, the other coins with a market capitalization of over 1 billion USD are BUSD, DAI, TUSD, and FRAX, accounting for 6.22%, 4.08%, 1.53%, and 0.78% of the total market capitalization of stablecoins, respectively. The coins with a market capitalization of over 100 million USD include USDP, USDD, GUSD, LUSD, USTC, MIM, and SUSD.

In terms of types, these main stablecoins can be divided into four categories: fiat-backed stablecoins, crypto-collateralized stablecoins, algorithmic stablecoins, and hybrid stablecoins. Currently, the highest market capitalization still belongs to fiat-backed stablecoins, but among the high market cap stablecoins, the most numerous are crypto-collateralized stablecoins, totaling 9 types.

It is worth noting that besides Ethereum, several public blockchains have also seen the emergence of stablecoins with significant market capitalization. For instance, Tron has surpassed Ethereum to become the main chain for USDT, and it is also the main chain for TUSD, USDD, and USDJ. There are also stablecoins with substantial market capitalization on Optimism, Polygon, and Kava, which has positive implications for the DeFi development across different public blockchains.

The supply of exchange stablecoins has significantly decreased, and purchasing power has fallen to a short-term low.

According to CryptoQuant data, as of March 18, the exchange stablecoin stock was about $21.461 billion, down 11.02% compared to the 11th, with a rapid outflow speed. However, it increased by 3.49% on the 11th compared to the 10th, which may be related to users exchanging stablecoins at the exchange to hedge risks.

The stablecoin supply index ( SSR ) is also affected, approximately at 4 on March 18, near the upper Bollinger Band, an increase of about 30% from 3.08 on the 11th. This is related to the recent rise in BTC prices; as asset prices rise rapidly while the market cap of stablecoins declines, the SSR has slightly increased, and actual purchasing power has decreased. This brings more uncertainty to the market's return to a bull run.

DEX stablecoin trading surges, lending rates have returned to normal

During the crisis, the amount of stablecoin locked in Uniswap v3, Curve, and AAVE v2, which are closely related to stablecoin trading, also decreased. The total amount of 13 major stablecoins locked in these 3 protocols fell from 3.464 billion USD on the 11th to 3.297 billion USD on the 18th, a decrease of about 4.83%.

Among them, the locked amount of USDT in the three protocols has increased significantly, with the highest rise exceeding 94% in Uniswap v3. USDC, on the other hand, has seen a significant decline in both Uniswap v3 and Curve. The locked amounts of FRAX, TUSD, SUSD, LUSD, MIM, USDD, and MAI have fallen across all three protocols, while the locked amounts of BUSD and GUSD have increased.

On March 11, the trading volume of stablecoin pairs in DEX reached 23.17 billion USD, far exceeding the usual level. The trading volumes of stablecoin pairs USDC, USDT, and DAI reached 10.43 billion, 8.51 billion, and 3.71 billion USD respectively, forming the main liquidity paths for stablecoins in DeFi during the crisis.

After USDC decoupled, the borrowing rates in the lending market were significantly affected, but they have now returned to the levels at the beginning of the month. The borrowing rates of USDC and DAI show a "V" shape, while USDT, TUSD, GUSD, LUSD, and SUSD display a "Λ" shape, indicating that the liquidity of the latter was relatively insufficient during the crisis.