Crypto market fluctuates downward: Stablecoin rise shows capital inflow

This week, the cryptocurrency market overall showed a trend of fluctuating decline, with the market sentiment index dropping from 11% to 8%. The market capitalization of stablecoins experienced rapid growth, indicating that institutional funds are re-entering, primarily driven by the acceleration of American capital. Although the release of economic data and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes alleviated concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy, the market has also begun to anticipate three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year starting in May, but this has not improved market sentiment. On the contrary, recent policy fluctuations have triggered severe volatility in Bitcoin prices, exacerbating market panic, and most altcoins have underperformed compared to the benchmark index.

Bullish Targets: BTC, S, AAVE, BERA

BTC: Despite the recent weakness in its performance influenced by macro factors and profit-taking, concerns about economic recession have eased, expectations for interest rate cuts have risen, and on-chain data shows that long-term holders have not sold off massively, but rather have started to accumulate. It is expected that the trend will improve next week.

S: Although it has followed the market decline this week, Sonic's fundamentals remain unchanged, TVL continues to rise, on-chain DeFi project yields remain high, daily income ranks at the top, and there is still room for growth.

AAVE: This week, it rose against the trend by 21.38%, with a significant increase in TVL. It mainly benefited from proposals for optimized governance and token economic models, as well as support from the White House for easing DeFi regulations, with optimistic future development prospects.

BERA: Although prices have corrected this week, the on-chain data and fundamentals of Berachain remain unchanged. The TVL of major DeFi projects continues to rise, and high yields continue to attract capital, maintaining the logic for growth.

Bearish Targets: APE, APT, MERL, TON

APE: The NFT and GameFi sectors have lost attention, and with a large-scale unlocking approaching, they are facing significant selling pressure.

APT: Although there is positive news from the ETF applications, it is not on the crypto reserve list mentioned by Trump, which may face capital transfer. In addition, the upcoming unlock may exacerbate the selling pressure.

MERL: As a BTC-L2, its TVL has significantly declined, with major ecological projects experiencing continuous capital outflow, which may lead to a further drop.

TON: TVL continues to decline, the popularity of on-chain games is waning, and the user profit effect is deteriorating, expected to remain in a downward trend.

Hot Track Analysis

AAVE: Through optimizing governance and token economic models, as well as benefiting from regulatory easing, AAVE has performed outstandingly. Its buyback plan demonstrates financial strength, and it may lead DeFi projects to shift towards dividend buyback models. However, compared to MKR, AAVE's current valuation is relatively high.

Berachain: Attracting users through high APY to drive ecological growth. However, attention should be paid to whether the new capital inflow is sufficient to cover arbitrage selling pressure. Currently, there is still room for growth in the on-chain BERA staking ratio, and the future development prospects are promising.

Important Events Next Week

• March 12: US February CPI year-on-year announcement
• March 13: Web3 Amsterdam 2025 Conference held

Overall, the crypto market is still in a phase of oscillation and adjustment. Investors need to closely monitor on-chain data, macro policies, and the upcoming token unlocking events to seize potential opportunities and mitigate risks.