2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Major Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced significant growth. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has driven the overall market up, with Bitcoin prices hitting an all-time high and boosting altcoin prices. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often start when Bitcoin reaches its peak. The first round of altcoin markets occurred when Bitcoin hit $69,000, and the next round is expected to appear when Bitcoin breaks $100,000.

The next round of altcoin trends is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025, at which time the price of Bitcoin is likely to stabilize at $100,000. However, before that, the market may replay the narrative of the second/third quarter of 2024. Here are four possible market scenarios for 2025:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins are rising. The market is on an upward trend in 2025, with Bitcoin continuing to rise, driving all tokens to perform well, repeating the trend of the past two months. (30-40% probability )

Strategy: Buy underperforming altcoins when they are low.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, and some altcoins rise. Replaying the trend of 2024, but overall more bullish. (50-60% probability )

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins for buying on dips. Avoid popular tracks and look for potential targets.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally decline. (20-30% probability )

Strategy: Liquidate altcoins. Reduce positions in altcoins, and consider selling all of those that have not increased in the long term.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins experience a widespread decline. The market has peaked. (10-20% probability )

Due to the favorable macro environment, the new round of Bitcoin historical high breakthroughs may not take as long as in 2024. The market's perception of Bitcoin has changed, and the new government has also brought new attention to digital assets. These factors will drive Bitcoin to remain strong in 2025.

In terms of altcoins, the overall trend will be similar to that of Bitcoin but slightly different. The key lies in selection and timing. Although the overall outlook for 2025 is positive, altcoins may still experience significant declines during periods lacking catalysts. As long as the cycle is not over, one should remain optimistic about both Bitcoin and altcoins.

Overall, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend in 2025, with growth potentially exceeding that of 2024. Altcoins are generally looking positive, but volatility may be greater than in 2024.

potential risks

Cycle Top Risk

Currently, we are still far from the cycle top, but continuous assessment is necessary. The cycle top is not a specific event, but a range that we are gradually approaching.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan Risks

If the new government completely ignores the Bitcoin reserve plan, it will be bad news. The more likely scenario is that the plan will be shelved or delayed.

Supply Risk

Supply risks always exist. There are always those who hold large amounts of Bitcoin, such as the UK government, Silk Road, FTX, etc. It is necessary to pay close attention, but if handled properly, it may also bring buying opportunities.

macroeconomic risk

The expected rate cut is limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve, which is beneficial for digital assets. The main risk is that inflation rises again, forcing interest rate hikes.

Investment Advice

1. AI

The AI sector has already experienced several rounds of increases. The next wave of market activity may arrive soon. Focus on application technology, Swarms, gaming, and consumer-facing AI projects.

2. DeFi

DeFi will continue to be an important track, but investment difficulty is relatively high. Focus on leading projects such as AAVE, ENA, and Morpho.

3. Public Chain

The public chain sector is expected to make a comeback. Focus on projects like SUI and Hype.

4. NFT and Game Tokens

NFT tokens are worth paying attention to. Keep an eye on PENGU, Azuki's ANIME tokens, etc. At the same time, look for promising gaming projects.

5. Other Hotspots

Data tokens, Meme coins, DePIN, Ordinals, etc. are also worth paying attention to.

11 Predictions for 2025

1. A large company will implement DePIN in some way.

2. A certain trading platform will lose its status as the largest exchange.

3. Metaverse tokens are revitalized with the advancement of VR technology.

4. ICO makes a glorious comeback.

5. The altcoin season on the Ethereum chain will not happen.

6. SUI reaches double digits.

7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to more staking and yield products.

8. A well-known artist operates fan engagement using NFTs and tokens.

9. Bitcoin reaches $200,000.

10. More executives from public chain organizations resign.

11. Base has lost in competition with other public chains, while Solana continues to maintain its advantage.