Crypto Market Weekly Review: Bitcoin and Ethereum Technicals Face Key Support Level Test

1. Macroeconomic Environment and Regulatory Dynamics

U.S. core inflation data has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there is divergence in the market regarding future trends. Some viewpoints suggest that the impact of tariffs will manifest in July and August, while others emphasize corporate pricing restraint amid weak demand. Within the Federal Reserve, there are also differing opinions: some hint at possibly lowering the threshold for interest rate cuts, while others insist on maintaining a tighter policy for a longer period. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to remain cautious, emphasizing the need to be wary of misleading short-term data and reaffirming the independence of the central bank.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress is accelerating the legislative process by establishing "Crypto Week," with the "GENIUS Act" becoming a core pillar. This act incorporates stablecoins into the regulatory framework, requiring reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This not only regulates the market but also achieves dual strategic goals: first, to support compliant stablecoins and consolidate the digital dominance of the dollar; second, to create demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and alleviate the fiscal deficit. In the long run, this will reshape the global payment system, and several tech giants have begun to layout stablecoins, attempting to establish an efficient cross-border settlement network.

2. Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis

After Bitcoin reached a new high of $123,000, it entered a correction, with several analysts focusing on the repair of the CME futures gap. There is a general expectation that the price may pull back to the range of $113,800 - $117,000 to fill the gap, after which a new round of increases is expected. Some viewpoints suggest that if the price cannot quickly break through the bearish gap on the 4-hour chart, it may instead push the price back up to around $120,000. From a cyclical perspective, the current expansion has only lasted 12 days, and there is still room until the historical cycle of 15-30 days.

Ethereum's market capitalization share has surpassed 10%. Although its performance this year has been weaker than Bitcoin, the trends of stablecoins and tokenization are driving demand growth. On the technical side, multiple analysts are also paying attention to its CME gap, expecting that after filling the gap in the range of 2830-2925 USD, it may break upwards towards 3200 USD. The increase in trading activity and the enhanced correlation with small-cap stocks provide a rebound potential in the context of expected liquidity easing.

3. Altcoin Market Trends

According to historical patterns, after Bitcoin breaks new highs, the altcoin market window usually lasts for 3-5 weeks, and the current cycle may continue for 1-2 months. Market funds are showing sector rotation: payment tokens are the first to start, large-cap coins are poised for action, and specific ecosystems along with Layer 1 projects are forming a relay team. The popularity of Chinese Meme narratives remains strong, with multiple related tokens hitting all-time highs. The AI companion concept also shows bright performance, with the market capitalization of some projects rising significantly.

4. Key Data and Market Indicators

As of July 16, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $117,798 ( Year-to-date +26.05% ), Daily trading volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum: $117,798 ( Year-to-date -5.91% ), Daily trading volume $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71( Greed )
• Market Share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: $355 million
• BTC mid to long-term trend channel: upper edge 115557.67 USD, lower edge 113269.40 USD
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper edge at 2887.31 USD, lower edge at 2830.14 USD

5. Institutional Trends and Outlook

• Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling +$403 million.
• Ethereum ETF has seen a net inflow for 8 consecutive days, totaling +$192 million
• Standard Chartered Bank launches Bitcoin and Ether spot trading services
• The U.S. House of Representatives will hold a hearing to discuss digital asset tax policies.
• Multiple projects are about to undergo token unlocks, with a total value exceeding 80 million USD.

Overall, the crypto market may face technical adjustment pressure in the short term, but the fundamentals remain positive in the medium to long term. Investors need to closely monitor the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum's key support levels, as well as changes in institutional fund flows.