Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has shown significant volatility. The ETH price has fallen from a high of $3940 to around $3600, a drop of approximately $340. Currently, ETH is testing the trend support line of its parallel upward channel, with the support level located around $3500.

It is worth noting that the previous large-scale downward channel trend resistance line has turned into support after breaking through the second high point, and has now fallen to around $3440. This position has become a key acceleration point. If ETH falls below $3440, it may further test the key support range of $3150-$3200. From a mid-term perspective, if this support range cannot be held, the possibility of ETH breaking through $4100 in the short term will be significantly reduced.

In a more pessimistic scenario, if key support is broken, ETH may enter a larger level of oscillation cycle, and may even test the lows of $2000-$1500. However, the market is not entirely pessimistic at this moment. Investors are closely watching whether Bitcoin can hold the support at $11,000, while Ethereum's $3450 is also an important observation point. As long as these key levels are not broken, there is still a possibility of a market rebound.

In a broader market context, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently launched the ProjectCrypto initiative, and the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S., as well as news of tariff increases, may also impact the cryptocurrency market. These factors could affect market sentiment and price trends in the short term.

Overall, although the current market is facing some downward pressure, as long as the key support levels can be maintained, the market is still expected to remain relatively stable. Investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor changes in these key price levels.