Market Observation and Policy Trends

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy faces a complex situation. Chairman Powell stated that the tariff plan could impact inflation control; otherwise, interest rates might have already been lowered. He retained flexibility for the July rate decision, suggesting that future policies could be more adaptable. Meanwhile, the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed narrowly in the Senate, with the House scheduled to debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill is comprehensive, including tax cuts, reductions in social spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to significantly increase national debt. In trade, the U.S. President has taken a tough stance, insisting on the July 9 tariff deadline, particularly pressuring Japan, which has heightened market tensions. Notably, due to Independence Day, U.S. stocks will close early at 1:00 AM Beijing time on July 4, with the market closed all day on July 4.

As Hong Kong celebrates the 28th anniversary of its return, the first licensed virtual asset exchange has set up an experience booth at the West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station. Industry insiders believe that the development of Web3 is not just a technological iteration but also a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. The year 2025 is seen as a significant milestone for Hong Kong's digital sovereignty and institutional innovation, and it is expected that Hong Kong will play a leading role in the new global financial order.

The price of Bitcoin has fallen to $105,000. Analysts point out that the upward momentum has weakened, and it may enter a consolidation or local top. The cost price for short-term holders at $98,700 has become a key support level. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically performs poorly in the third quarter, and a decrease in volatility is expected in the future. However, over the past decade, Bitcoin has averaged a 9.1% increase in July, and the market still has expectations for a challenge of the $116,000 mark. Some pessimistic analysts warn that the real sell-off has not yet begun, predicting a possible drop to the range of $92,000 to $93,000, or even $60,000 to $70,000.

The overall on-chain market is relatively dull, but the trend of stocks going on-chain brings some highlights. A certain trading platform's stock price has reached a new high, driving a surge in related tokens on the Solana chain.

Key Data

As of July 2, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $106,465 ( Year-to-date +13.8% ), Daily trading volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 ( Year-to-date -26.88% ), Daily trading volume $14.38 billion
• Fear and Greed Index:63( Greed )
• Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.7 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.1186
• Sector Performance: AI Sector -4.48%, RWA Sector -4.72%
• 24-hour liquidations: 100,830 people, total amount $256 million
• BTC Trend Channel: Upper bound 107151.13 USD, Lower bound 105029.32 USD
• ETH Trend Channel: Upper Bound $2467.39, Lower Bound $2418.53

ETF Capital Flow

As of July 1st:

• Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million ( consecutive 15 days of net inflow ends )
• Ethereum ETF: +$40.6798 million ( net inflow for 3 consecutive days )

Market Outlook

• The US stock market will close early on July 3rd and will be fully closed on July 4th.
• Multiple new projects launch or ETF release
• Pay attention to important economic indicators such as US employment data
• ENA will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens
• Top five increase today: H, CBK, USELESS, QRL, ALEO

Hot News

• Multiple listed companies are increasing their investments in Bitcoin or are laying out blockchain business plans.
• Analysts predict that Bitcoin may challenge $116,000 in July.
• A Japanese gaming company plans to invest in cryptocurrency
• Trump family-related cryptocurrency project raises $220 million
• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September.
• Circle applies for a US banking license
• U.S. Treasury Secretary: Stablecoin legislation may be completed by mid-July