Crypto Assets Market Observation: Macroeconomic Factors and Technical Analysis Indicate Future Trends

Market Overview

Recently, new variables have emerged in the global economic situation. The US and Europe have reached an agreement on trade issues, imposing a 15% tariff on most goods exported to Europe. Although this avoids a full-blown trade war, there are discrepancies in the details of the agreement, and unequal terms have raised concerns in some European industries. Domestically in the US, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week is drawing significant attention, with expectations to maintain interest rates, although there is pressure to cut rates. This week is seen as the "moment of truth" for the economy, with several key data points set to be released.

Against this backdrop, experts in the crypto industry have changed their views on market cycles. Some believe that driven by multiple positive factors, the traditional four-year cycle is no longer applicable, and the market is entering a "sustained and stable prosperity" phase. However, polls show that the public's understanding of crypto assets still has gaps, with most investors viewing them as high-risk assets.

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin has shown volatile performance recently. Analysis indicates that dual pressures from macro and micro factors are leading to the pullback: on the macro level, issues such as the U.S. credit rating and debt are suppressing risk appetite; on the micro level, changes in capital flows and worsening market sentiment are exacerbating volatility. In the short term, it may continue to be under pressure, while the long-term trend depends on the evolution of the global economy and regulatory environment.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin needs to break through $119,500 to start a new round of increase. Currently, it is in two key liquidation zones, and it is expected to first reach the upper area before reversing to test the lower one. If it touches the high point of $123,000, it may lead to the liquidation of over $9.5 billion in short positions. The worst-case scenario may pull back to $112,000, while the best-case scenario could hit $125,000 in August.

Ethereum and Other Assets

Analysis suggests that, thanks to the growth of network activity and inflow of funds, Ethereum is about to break through a four-year long resistance level, with a potential surge to 4000 USD this week.

BNB reached a new high of $855, rising 7.5% in 24 hours, possibly driven by increased holdings from listed companies and other capital inflows. VINE surged by 110% due to concept speculation. The NFT sector generally rose, with sales on the Ethereum chain exceeding $157 million over the past 7 days.

Market Data

• Bitcoin: $119,465, Year-to-date +27.77%
• Ethereum: $3,933.53, Year-to-date +17.76%
• Fear and Greed Index:75( Greed )
• Market share: BTC 60%, ETH 11.9%
• 24-hour liquidation: 94,528 people, total amount $249 million

ETF Capital Flow:

• Bitcoin ETF: +$130 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$453 million, net inflow for 17 consecutive days

Recent Events

• A trading platform will support the renaming of LOKA token to A2Z.
• The Sui ecosystem Ika network will launch its mainnet on July 29.
• JUP and SIGN will unlock a portion of the tokens

Top 100 market cap largest gains: HEX up 25.4%, PancakeSwap up 11.8%, SPX6900 up 11.4%

Hot News

• Ethereum's tenth anniversary; the "countervailing duties" window in the U.S. is approaching.
• The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision.
• Tokens like SUI and ENA will see large-scale unlocks.
• Recent sales of NFTs on the Ethereum chain have been active
• Ethena Foundation subsidiary repurchased 83 million ENA coins.