Bitcoin and Ethereum CME gaps attract market follow, will the pullback become the starting point for a new round of pump?

1. Market Observation

U.S. core inflation data has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but the market has differing views on future trends. Some argue that there will be more noticeable price pressure in July and August, while others emphasize companies' pricing restraint amid weak demand. There are also differing voices within the Federal Reserve: some hint at potentially lowering the threshold for interest rate cuts, while others insist on maintaining a tight policy for a longer period. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, stressing vigilance against misleading short-term data and reaffirming the importance of central bank independence.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress has accelerated the legislative process by establishing "Cryptocurrency Week," with the "GENIUS Act" becoming the core of the regulatory framework. This act brings the hundreds of billions of dollars stablecoin market into the regulatory framework, requiring reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This initiative not only standardizes the market but also has dual strategic goals: first, to weaken offshore competitors by supporting compliant stablecoins and consolidate the digital hegemony of the dollar; second, to create a large demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and ease the pressure of fiscal deficits. In the long run, this will reshape the global payment system, and several tech giants have begun to lay out dollar/HKD stablecoins in an attempt to establish a new cross-border settlement network. Some analysts believe that this shift in regulatory paradigm will strengthen Bitcoin's position as a digital gold asset allocation.

After Bitcoin hit a new high of $123,000, it entered a correction phase, with multiple analysts focusing on the technical repair of the CME futures gap. It is generally believed that the Bitcoin price may pull back to the $113,800-$117,000 range to fill the gap, after which a new round of pump could occur. Some viewpoints suggest that if the price fails to quickly break through the current consolidation area, it may instead drive the price back up to around $120,000. Other analyses show that the market has not yet peaked, with the next key level being $136,000, and there is strong support in the $93,000 to $109,000 range. From a cyclical perspective, the current expansion has only lasted 12 days, leaving room until the historical cycle of 15-30 days.

Ethereum's market capitalization ratio has surpassed 10%. Some analysts point out that although its performance this year has been weaker than Bitcoin, the trend of stablecoins and tokenization is driving the demand for ETH. On the technical side, several analysts are also focusing on its CME gap, believing that after filling the gap in the range of $2,830 to $2,925, Ethereum is likely to break through $3,200. There is a viewpoint suggesting that the increase in Ethereum's trading activity is correlated with the enhanced connectivity of small-cap stocks, creating potential for a rebound against the backdrop of expected liquidity easing.

The altcoin market is showing a rotation of sectors: payment tokens have started first, while large-cap coins are building momentum, and the Solana ecosystem along with Layer 1 projects are forming a tiered structure. The popularity of Chinese Meme coins remains strong, with multiple projects reaching historical highs. AI-related tokens are also showing active performance. Some analyses based on historical patterns indicate that after Bitcoin breaks new highs, the altcoin market window usually lasts for 3-5 weeks, and the current cycle may continue for 1-2 months.

2. Key Data (As of July 16, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $117,798 (Year-to-date +26.05%), Daily spot trading volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum: $117,798 (Year-to-date -5.91%), Daily spot trading volume is $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB, ETH: 0.9 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, PENGU, Bitcoin, Ether, XLM
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.4%/50.6%
• Sector Performance: DeFi sector rose by 5.98%; GameFi sector rose by 4.52%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 106,515 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $355 million, of which $87.4977 million was from BTC, $120 million from ETH, and $8.8351 million from DOGE.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (115557.67 USD), lower line (113269.40 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (2887.31 USD), lower line (2830.14 USD)

3. ETF Inflows (as of July 15)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403 million, continued net inflow for 9 days
• Ethereum ETF: +$192 million, continued net inflow for 8 days

4. Today's Outlook

• July 16: A wallet conducted the Hyperion (RION) Bonding Curve version TGE
• July 16, 17:00: Eclipse opens ES token airdrop
• July 16: The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on digital asset tax policy.
• July 17: A trading platform Alpha lists Caldera (ERA)
• July 17th, 9 PM: Plasma: XPL public sale begins
• July 17, 02:00: The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
• July 17, 05:30: New York Fed President Williams speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

Token Unlock:

• July 16, 21:00: Arbitrum (ARB) unlocks approximately 92.65 million tokens
• July 17th 08:00: UXLINK (UXLINK) unlocks approximately 37.5 million tokens
• July 17, 18:00: Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock approximately 252 million tokens.
• July 17, 20:30: ApeCoin (APE) unlocks approximately 15.6 million coins.
• July 17th 16:00: ZKsync (ZK) unlocks approximately 173 million tokens

Top 500 market cap largest rises today: Staika (STIK) rise 124.33%, Osaka Protocol (OSAK) rise 38.46%, PepeCoin (PEPECOIN) rise 28.96%, CoW Protocol (COW) rise 25.74%, Aevo (AEVO) rise 20.84%.

5. Hot News

• Two multi-signature wallets suspected to belong to the same entity collectively spent over 100 million USD to purchase 33,366 Ether.
• Movement: The $MOVE repurchase has been completed, with the foundation repurchasing approximately 180 million $MOVE tokens.
• Standard Chartered Bank launches Bitcoin and Ether spot trading services for institutional clients.
• Ondo Finance announces the acquisition of Strangelove, accelerating the development of a full-stack RWA platform.
• SharpLink recently raised approximately $413 million in net proceeds, of which about $156 million has been invested in Ether.
• A large institutional investor reduced their holdings by 15,000 Ether through intermediaries in the past 8 hours.
• Pump.Fun has reportedly transferred 98,000 SOL to a buyback address, worth approximately 16 million US dollars.
• The U.S. June unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is 2.9%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is 0.2%.