Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown new dynamics. Bitcoin's price broke through the $115,000 mark, reaching a high of $115,700, and is currently facing a resistance range of $116,000 to $116,600. Notably, market volatility has significantly decreased, with Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility dropping to 36.5%, marking a new low since October 2023. Meanwhile, Ethereum is maintaining a consolidation phase, but the participation of institutional investors continues to rise.

These market changes are closely related to the possible adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The latest data shows that the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 93.6%. This expectation is mainly influenced by the worse-than-expected non-farm employment data in July and the continued easing of inflation. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates consecutively from September to December, with the target rate potentially dropping to the range of 3.5%-3.75%.

The potential shift towards a looser monetary policy may bring multiple effects: firstly, US dollar liquidity is expected to strengthen; secondly, financing costs may drop; finally, this environment may enhance the attractiveness of encryption assets. However, investors still need to cautiously assess risks and closely monitor policy directions and market reactions.

As the global economic situation continues to change, the development trend of the cryptocurrency market is worth continuous attention. Whether institutional or individual investors, it is essential to grasp opportunities while fully recognizing the volatility and uncertainty of this emerging market.