Market Dynamics: Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Technical Corrections, Alts May Welcome Rotation Opportunities

U.S. core inflation data has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there are differing opinions in the market regarding future trends. Some believe that more significant price pressures will emerge in July and August, while others emphasize companies' pricing restraint amid weak demand. There are also differing opinions within the Federal Reserve, with some hinting at potentially lowering the threshold for rate cuts, while others insist on maintaining a tightening policy for a longer period. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to adopt a wait-and-see approach and emphasizes the importance of being cautious about short-term data misguidance.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress is accelerating the legislative process related to this matter. The newly proposed bill will regulate the stablecoin market, requiring reserves to be held in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities. This move could benefit the development of compliant stablecoins while creating significant demand for U.S. Treasuries. Additionally, some large tech companies are positioning themselves in the USD/HKD stablecoin market, attempting to establish a new cross-border settlement network. Some analysts believe that this shift in regulatory paradigm may strengthen Bitcoin's position as a digital gold asset allocation.

Bitcoin has entered a correction phase after reaching a historical high, with multiple analysts focusing on the technical repair of the CME futures gap. It is generally expected that the Bitcoin price may retreat to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the gap, after which a new round of increases may occur. Some opinions suggest that the market has yet to peak, with the next key level at $136,000, and strong support in the range of $93,000 to $109,000.

Ethereum's market capitalization ratio has surpassed 10%. Analysts point out that the trend of stablecoins and Wall Street accelerating tokenization is driving the growth in ETH demand. On the technical side, several analysts are also focusing on its CME gap, believing that after filling the gap in the range of $2,830 to $2,925, Ethereum is expected to break upward above $3,200.

In terms of the altcoin market, there are views that after Bitcoin breaks new highs, it is usually a window for altcoin trends in the following 3-5 weeks. Market funds show a clear rotation of sectors: payment tokens are the first to start, some large-cap coins are poised to take off, and certain ecological projects and Layer 1 projects are forming a relay team. Recently, the popularity of Chinese Meme narratives remains high, with multiple related tokens reaching all-time highs.

Key Data (as of July 16, 12:00)

• Bitcoin: $117,798 (Year-to-date +26.05%), Daily Trading Volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum: $117,798 (YTD -5.91%), daily trading volume $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.4%/50.6%
• Sector Changes: The DeFi sector rose by 5.98%; the GameFi sector rose by 4.52%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 106,515 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $355 million.

Today's Outlook

• A certain wallet will conduct the Hyperion (RION) Bonding Curve version TGE.
• Eclipse will open ES token airdrop
• The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing to discuss digital asset tax policies.
• The trading platform Alpha will launch Caldera (ERA)
• Plasma: XPL public sale is expected to start
• The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.
• New York Fed President Williams will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
• Multiple projects will have token unlocks, including Arbitrum, UXLINK, Solv Protocol, ApeCoin, and ZKsync, among others.

Hot News

• Two multi-signature wallets suspected to belong to the same entity spent over 100 million USD to purchase 33,366 Ether.
• Movement completed the buyback of $MOVE tokens, repurchasing approximately 180 million coins.
• Standard Chartered Bank launches Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading services for institutional clients
• Ondo Finance announces acquisition of Strangelove, accelerating the development of a full-stack RWA platform.
• SharpLink recently raised approximately $413 million in net proceeds, part of which has been invested in Ethereum.
• A certain whale institution reduced its holdings by 15,000 ETH through Wintermute.
• Pump.Fun allegedly transferred 98,000 SOL to a buyback address, worth approximately 16 million USD.
• The annual core CPI in the US for June is 2.9% unadjusted, and the monthly core CPI is 0.2% adjusted.