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The crypto market is experiencing a volatile fall, while AAVE is rising against the trend by 21%, and the market capitalization of stablecoins is rapidly increasing.
The crypto market is experiencing fluctuations and falls, while some popular projects are rising against the trend.
This week, the crypto market overall shows a trend of fluctuation and fall, with the market sentiment index dropping from 11% to 8%. Nevertheless, the market capitalization of stablecoins has started to grow rapidly, with USDT reaching 142.7 billion and USDC reaching 57.2 billion, rising by 0.49% and 2.32% respectively, indicating that institutional funds are re-entering the market, primarily with American funds.
Although economic data and the Federal Reserve's stance have alleviated concerns about an economic recession, the market expects three interest rate cuts this year, potentially starting in May, but this has not improved market sentiment. On the contrary, recent policy fluctuations have triggered price volatility in Bitcoin, exacerbating market panic, and most altcoins have performed poorly.
Bullish Assets
BTC
Bitcoin's recent performance has been weak, mainly influenced by the following factors:
Macroeconomic level: Trump's tariff policy raises inflation concerns, US GDP expectations are lowered, the Ukrainian mineral agreement is shelved, and there is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin itself: After maintaining high levels for two months, long-term holders and large investors began to take profits, lacking new positive news and funding replenishment. The Bitcoin strategic reserve signed by Trump fell short of expectations, exacerbating the price fall and triggering panic selling.
However, the reasons for the rise include:
Macroeconomic improvement: Economic data and the Federal Reserve's attitude alleviate recession concerns, and the market expects three interest rate cuts this year.
On-chain data shows: most holders did not sell during the fall, but instead began to accumulate.
S
Although the S token fell with the market this week, the fundamentals of Sonic remain unchanged:
Therefore, the fall of the S token is mainly due to the influence of the overall market, the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the logic for rise still exists.
AAVE
AAVE rose 21.38% this week against the trend, showing outstanding performance:
AAVE, as a leader in DeFi, may lead industry trends and is expected to spark a wave of innovation.
BERA
Despite the fall of the BERA token this week, the on-chain data of Berachain shows improvement:
High APY is extremely attractive in the current panic market, leading to an increase in BERA demand. The fall is mainly influenced by market conditions, but the pump logic is still intact.
Bearish Underlying
APE
APE mainly involves the NFT and GameFi sectors, but these areas have been seized by Meme tokens, leading to serious user and capital outflow. On March 16, 15.37 million APE will be unlocked, accounting for 1.54% of the total locked amount, mainly held by VCs, which may bring selling pressure.
APT
Although Bitwise's application for a spot Aptos ETF boosts sentiment, Aptos is not included in the crypto reserve list mentioned by Trump. If the White House summit reveals details about the reserves, it may divert attention from Aptos. On March 12, 11.3 million APT will be unlocked, which may exacerbate selling pressure.
MERL
Merlin TVL has decreased significantly by 12.44%, with major ecosystem projects MerlinSwap and Pell Network experiencing declines of 34.33% and 87.11% respectively. As a BTC-L2, the ecosystem is limited, and funds are continuously withdrawing. Additionally, with the overall BTC ecosystem being sluggish, MERL may face further declines.
TON
Toncoin TVL continues to decline, falling by 10.68% this week. Since the popularity of on-chain mini-games on Telegram has faded, SocialFi projects lack hits, resulting in decreased user earnings. Coupled with the recent sluggish market conditions, the TON price has plummeted, and investor confidence is low, which may lead to further declines.
Market Sentiment
The market sentiment index has dropped to 8%, entering the extreme fear zone.
Hot Track Analysis
Aave
Aave performed well, with a TVL growth rate of 5.86% and a token rise of 21.38%. This is mainly due to:
As a benchmark in DeFi, Aave's buyback model may lead industry trends. However, its price-to-earnings ratio of 60.86 is much higher than Maker's 20.75, indicating a lower cost-performance ratio.
Berachain
Berachain TVL rose 17.21% to $3.449 billion, but the BERA price fell by 12.94%.
The growth mainly comes from:
High APY attracts users, but caution is needed regarding the risk that new funds may not be sufficient to cover the arbitrage selling pressure. Currently, the BERA staking ratio is about 30%, with room for growth.
Market Theme
PayFi performed the best, while Sociafi performed the worst.
PayFi: XRP, LTC, XLM account for 95.07%, with price changes of 18.96%, -18.47%, and 6.23% respectively. Sociafi: TON and CHZ account for 94.39%, with a fall of -10.68% and -2.31%, respectively.
Important Events Next Week
Summary
This week, the crypto market experienced a turbulent fall, with low sentiment. Despite the inflow of stablecoin funds and the solid fundamentals of some projects, the overall market remains affected by macro policy uncertainties. Projects like BTC, AAVE, and Berachain are expected to stand out due to their fundamental advantages and innovative strategies. Investors should pay attention to on-chain data, policy trends, and upcoming unlocking events to seize opportunities and mitigate risks.