Tariff concerns dominate inflation sentiment, and the impact of the fiscal bill on consumers has yet to materialize.

On May 30, the data showed that the inflation expectations in the United States in the coming year rose slightly to 6.6%, the smallest increase since the election, ending the sharp jump in short-term expectations for four consecutive months. Notably, long-term inflation expectations (the final value of the five- to ten-year inflation rate expectations in the United States in May) fell to 4.2% in May, the first decline since December 2024, ending an unprecedented four-month winning streak. Given the widespread expectation that tariffs will be passed on to consumer prices, it is not surprising that trade policy influences their economic perceptions. By contrast, while the tax and spending bill being pushed forward by Congress has made headlines, it does not appear to have significantly impacted consumer sentiment so far.