Most economists believe that the Bank of Japan will postpone interest rate hikes until the first quarter of next year.

On June 11, a Reuters poll showed that due to the uncertainty of the U.S. tariff policy, the Bank of Japan will abandon raising interest rates again this year. Most economists expect the next 25 basis point rate hike to take place in early 2026. The majority of respondents also said that the Bank of Japan will slow down the pace of tapering government bond purchases from next fiscal year, while three-quarters of respondents expect the government to reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds. None of the 60 analysts surveyed on June 2-10 expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its June 16-17 policy meeting.

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