Conflux Price Prediction: With China's narrative and policy dividends supporting it, can CFX strongly break through the 0.23 USD resistance?

Conflux (CFX) experienced an astonishing pump in July, soaring from a low of $0.07 to $0.28 within the month, with a cumulative increase of 297%. However, as the price fluctuated dramatically and false breakouts occurred in a triangular pattern, the market has developed a high level of follow regarding whether CFX can effectively break through the key resistance level of $0.23. This article will combine technical charts, on-chain data, and Chinese narratives to analyze the future trends of CFX in depth.

1. After the triangular consolidation, is CFX brewing a new round of breakout?

At the end of July, CFX experienced a significant triangular consolidation market. The white symmetrical triangle pattern usually indicates a decrease in fluctuation, often accompanied by a subsequent rapid breakout and an increase in trading volume. Recently, CFX has been oscillating in the range of 0.18~0.23 USD, and although it briefly retraced to 0.18 USD on July 29, that position corresponds exactly to the support of the downward trend line, which is within a reasonable correction range.

Key resistance levels: 0.218 USD, 0.23 USD

Potential target: If it breaks through the above resistance, CFX is expected to challenge 0.24 USD or even higher.

Support below: 0.18 USD (downward trend line)

The liquidation heatmap also shows that $0.18 and $0.236 are the main battlegrounds for bulls and bears in the coming days. Combined with the triangle pattern, a directional choice is expected in the short term.

II. China Narrative and Policy Dividends: Can CFX Become the Biggest Beneficiary?

Conflux has long regarded itself as the "Ethereum of China," possessing a digital ledger that complies with regulatory requirements, and collaborating with local internet giants such as the Chinese version of Instagram. There are widespread rumors in the industry that Beijing intends to promote stablecoins to counter the dominance of the US dollar, and CFX is also actively preparing an offshore RMB stablecoin. These developments have made CFX a representative of China's crypto narrative, with a price increase of over 190% in the past 30 days.

However, on-chain data reveals concerns:

On-chain activity is sluggish: aside from occasional peaks, the daily trading volume remains below the levels of 2022.

Centralization concerns: Nearly 80% of total gas consumption comes from three accounts, far exceeding Ethereum's 10%, reflecting a more concentrated user structure of the protocol.

This means that while the market is full of expectations for the Chinese concept, whether CFX can truly represent the Chinese Web3 ecosystem remains to be verified.

3. Technical vs Fundamental: Short-term Opportunities and Long-term Risks Coexist

Technical Analysis: If CFX can strongly break through the 0.23 USD resistance, it is expected to attract more funds to chase the price, initiating a new round of upward movement; if it falls below 0.18 USD, caution is needed for a deep correction after false breakouts.

Fundamentals: The lack of sustained growth in on-chain activity and decentralization progress may limit the long-term valuation space for CFX.

Conclusion

Conflux (CFX) is at a critical technical level and narrative turning point. In the short term, after a triangular consolidation, a directional choice is expected. A breakthrough at the resistance level of 0.23 USD will be an important signal for bulls. However, the weaknesses in on-chain data and user structure remind investors not to overlook fundamental risks. It is advised that traders closely follow changes in trading volume and the defense of key price levels, seizing short-term opportunities while cautiously assessing long-term allocations.