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- 📢 Exclusive on Gate Square — #PROVE Creative Contest# is Now Live!
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The World Trade Organization revises its forecast, expecting global goods trade volume to rise by 0.9% this year.
On August 9, Jin10 reported that the World Trade Organization released a forecast report on August 8, stating that the global goods trade volume is expected to rise by 0.9% in 2025, higher than the -0.2% contraction predicted in April, but lower than the 2.7% before the tariff increase. The WTO attributed this upward revision to two positive factors: the first is that the United States imported in advance to avoid the impact of tariffs. In the first half of 2025, U.S. imports surged, with a year-on-year increase of 11%. This factor will temporarily boost the trade outlook for 2025; the second positive factor is that the global macroeconomic outlook is currently more optimistic than many economists' expectations in April. However, the WTO also pointed out that recent tariff changes, especially the higher so-called "reciprocal tariff" rate implemented by the U.S. on August 7, are expected to have an overall negative impact on the global trade outlook. The WTO has lowered next year's expected trade growth rate from the previous 2.5% to 1.8%.