Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Dominance Crack Could Ignite Surprise Altcoin Surge

Bitcoin dominance rejected at approximately 72% with a monthly Bearish Engulfing Candle, similar to pre-2021 altseason patterns.

Monthly MACD bearish cross in mid 2025 signals momentum shift away from Bitcoin toward altcoins.

Altcoin Season Index at 35/100 shows selective altcoin gains, but Bitcoin still holds 59.55% market share.

Bitcoin’s market dominance has had a decisive rejection at a multi year resistance level, raising the possibility of an accelerated altcoin rally. According to market analyst Merlijn The Trader, the current setup is similar to the period preceding the 2021 altseason, when capital shifted sharply from Bitcoin into alternative digital assets. Historical data shows that such transitions often occur abruptly, leaving little time for traders to reposition.

Multi Year Resistance Rejection and Market Sentiment

Since 2017, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has moved under a descending resistance line, limiting its ability to sustain rallies. In late 2020 and early 2021, BTC.D attempted to break higher near 73%, but a monthly Bearish Engulfing Candle led to a steep drop toward 40% by mid 2021

Bitcoin Dominance 1-month price chart, Source: Merlijn The Trader on X

Between 2021 and early 2025, BTC.D recovered gradually and retested the same resistance near 72%, where another Bearish Engulfing Candle formed. This rejection, seen in August 2025, coincided with a decline to around 60.72%, supporting the similarities to previous altcoin rotation cycles.

MACD Cross Indicates Momentum ChangeToward Altcoins

Technical indicators support the rejection narrative. In early 2021, the monthly MACD line crossed below its signal line, aligning with BTC.D’s sharp decline. A similar bearish cross appeared in mid 2025, shortly after the resistance rejection

The MACD histogram has since moved into negative levels, suggesting declining momentum in Bitcoin’s dominance. Such patterns historically precede periods where altcoins get larger market share. A sustained drop below 58% dominance could accelerate this trend, while holding above 55% may lead to temporary consolidation.

Selective Altcoin Gains and Broader BTC Control

Despite technical weakness in BTC.D, Bitcoin still holds 59.55% of the total crypto market value. The Altcoin Season Index is at 35, well below the 75 level needed to confirm altseason

Ethereum has gained by 15.16% in the past week, supported by ETF inflows totaling $18.4 billion and its recent Pectra network upgrade. DeFi assets such as Aave have also rallied, posting a 28.43% weekly gain

Meanwhile, speculative interest in meme coins has surged, with tokens like DONKEY and TROLL rising by 349% and 241% respectively. However, these rallies remain concentrated and have not shifted overall dominance away from Bitcoin.

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