Investors expect the price of Solana to reach $250, but some data presents mixed signals.

The price of Solana (SOL) reached $205 on Tuesday, after rising 18% in less than two days. This strong growth has fueled speculation about whether SOL could continue to extend its rise to $250 in the near future, as investors are considering the fundamental factors of the network and derivative activities for assessment.

SOL/USD (green) compared to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (purple-red) | Source: TradingView Although it has returned to the psychological level of 200 dollars, SOL still outperforms the overall cryptocurrency market. The recent rise has pushed its market capitalization to 107 billion dollars, still lower than BNB at 117 billion dollars. To determine whether a "flippening" is feasible, both the fundamental factors of the network and the derivative indicators need to be considered.

Ranking blockchain by transactions (30 days) | Source: NansenIn the past 30 days, the number of transactions of Solana has risen by 48%, indicating an increase in on-chain activity, supporting the price outlook for SOL. In contrast, transactions on the BNB Chain have decreased by 41% during the same period, according to data from Nansen. The network fees of Solana have also risen by 43%, indicating that the increased usage is creating tangible economic benefits for token holders.

SOL futures contracts indicate caution from the bulls

To gain a better understanding of investor sentiment as SOL approaches the highest levels in the past six months, perpetual futures play a crucial role. To balance the demand for leverage, exchanges charge interest rates from buyers (long) or sellers (short). Interest rates above 12% typically indicate optimism.

The annual funding rate of SOL perpetual futures | Source: Laevitas.chCurrently, the annual open interest rate of SOL futures is at 12%, sitting at the neutral and optimistic sentiment threshold. Investors seem cautious, recalling that the last time SOL traded above $200, on July 22, it lasted less than 24 hours. Furthermore, investors are also not very enthusiastic about the trading volume on Solana's decentralized exchanges (DEX), which is trending down.

The weekly DEX trading volume of Solana is (measured in USD) | Source: DefiLlamaDEX activity on Solana has decreased for three consecutive weeks, reaching $20.6 billion, according to data from DefiLlama. Over the past 30 days, Solana's DEX volume reached $113.7 billion, slightly lower than Ethereum's $116.2 billion, and this gap does not account for Ethereum's layer-2 ecosystem, which added another $91.7 billion. For SOL holders, these numbers are not truly encouraging.

The Solana staking ETF REX-Osprey, launched in July, has accumulated $161 million in assets under management. In comparison, Ethereum ETFs have recorded an impressive net inflow of $2.33 billion since August 5, although Ethereum products have yet to receive approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for staking features.

Although there are no factors preventing SOL from reaching 250 dollars, current on-chain and derive data do not show a clear catalyst or an increase in investor enthusiasm. However, the lack of excessive leverage could support a more sustainable price increase, although this will depend on increased participation from retail investors and capital flows from institutions, which still depend on SEC approval for a conventional Solana ETF.

Mr. Giáo