Institutions: The market's expectations for the Fed's September meeting have changed dramatically.

Jin10 data reported on August 14th that institutional surveys show a significant change in market expectations for the Fed's September meeting. According to Kalshi's data, traders now expect a 50 basis point rate cut (11%) to be more likely than no rate cut (10%) for the first time. Most respondents still believe a 25 basis point cut is likely (81%), but the balance between 'keeping it unchanged' and 'larger rate cuts' is shifting, indicating that some are beginning to price in more aggressive easing policies.

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