This is why ETH is unlikely to exceed $3,800 in the short term.

The price of Ether (ETH) has surged 9% from the bottom zone of $3,355 on Sunday to $3,682. However, derivative indicators still show that traders are not fully confident in the ability to maintain this upward momentum.

The recent price movements of Ether have almost mirrored the entire altcoin market capitalization, reflecting a lack of clear momentum to trigger a sustainable breakout above the $3,800 mark in the short term.

ETH/USD (left, pink) compared to Total market capitalization altcoin/USD (right, green) | Source: TradingViewOn July 28, altcoin capitalization reached 1.3 trillion USD – coinciding with Ether reaching its highest peak in 2025. However, the inability of ETH to maintain the $4,000 threshold at the end of the month is believed to be a consequence of the increasingly cautious sentiment within the investment community, rather than stemming from internal instabilities of the Ethereum ecosystem.

However, this does not mean that the confidence in the bullish trend of ETH is being strengthened.

The annual premium for the 3-month Ether futures contract | Source: laevitas.chCurrently, the price difference of the 3-month futures contract with Ether is only at 5% – the threshold between a neutral market and a bearish trend. Notably, even when ETH surged to $3,900 a week ago, this indicator still couldn't switch to a clear bullish signal.

The total value locked (TVL) of Ethereum decreases affecting investor sentiment.

One reason for the current disappointment is due to the weakening flow of funds into decentralized applications (DApps). In the past 30 days, the total value locked (TVL) on the Ethereum network has decreased by 9%, down to 23.8 million ETH.

In contrast to the decline of Ethereum, BNB Chain recorded an impressive increase of 8%, raising the TVL to 6.94 billion BNB. Meanwhile, the Solana ecosystem also showed signs of recovery as the amount of funds deposited into DApps increased by 4%, reaching 69.2 million SOL, according to data from DefiLlama. Nevertheless, in terms of USD value, Ethereum still maintains its dominant position with 59% of the total TVL market share.

Skew ETH options with a 30-day expiry (buy-sell) at Deribit | Source: laevitas.chHowever, investor sentiment towards Ether is gradually shifting to a more cautious stance, clearly reflected in the ETH options market. On Saturday, the 25% delta skew (put-call) reached 6% - the threshold separating neutral and bearish trends.

The index increases when the demand for hedging through put options ( rises. Although it has dropped to 3%, indicating that sentiment is temporarily balanced, it also means that optimistic confidence has not yet truly returned.

Ether lacks institutional buying power to surpass the $3,800 mark

Currently, the price of ETH on exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken is slightly lower than on Binance and Bitfinex – a signal that institutional demand has weakened. This is in stark contrast to the period from July 10 to 23, when the higher prices on these exchanges were believed to be a result of accumulation by investment funds.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-e8470049ec99b645880e6f74d04d1a6f.webp(The ETH/USD premium fees of Coinbase & Kraken compared to Binance & Bitfinex | Source: TradingviewThe cooling signals from institutional investors are becoming more evident as Ether's spot ETF funds saw a net outflow of up to 129 million USD within just three days, from Wednesday to Friday last week. In the context of a lack of strong driving forces, Ether is unlikely to detach itself from the overall market's sideways trend to conquer the $3,800 level.

The prospects for a strong price increase are currently quite dim, especially as global macroeconomic factors such as the risk of trade wars or the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. labor market continue to loom. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious about official figures, fearing that economic growth and inflation are being inflated by a wave of inventory accumulation from businesses and consumers, in light of the possibility that the U.S. may raise import taxes.

In that context, if institutional capital does not return soon, ETH is likely to continue following the overall movement of the altcoin market – lacking breakthroughs and being easily influenced by macro variables.

SN_Nour