Forecast: Bitcoin might pause a bit

In recent days, a prediction has been circulating more insistently that the price of Bitcoin could remain for a while below the August highs

This hypothesis is based on a couple of observations that are emerging these days, and not on fundamental analysis, but since the latter have not been providing much guidance on the matter lately, it is advisable not to exclude it

The forecast on Bitcoin

This is by no means the only forecast circulating regarding the possible trend of the price of Bitcoin in the short or medium-short term

However, it is a forecast that has been emerging in recent days almost spontaneously, autonomously, and therefore should be taken with interest

There are also many other forecasts circulating that support different hypotheses, such as that of a drastic decline or a new beginning of the bullrun, but it is usually always like this, so it is not a novelty

This forecast in particular suggests that there do not currently appear to be conditions for significant price movements of Bitcoin

There might indeed be volatility, perhaps in the last days of this trading week, but without major crashes or major rallies

The reasons

The reasons behind this forecast are particularly two

The first is very simple: historically, September has often not been a particularly positive month for Bitcoin, and history could repeat itself

This reason alone is not remotely sufficient to hypothesize a halt to the bullrun, but together with the other cause, it describes a scenario that seems at least plausible

The other reason is that the rally that led Bitcoin’s price to record new all-time highs just before mid-month seems to have completely run out

The rally

After the mini-bubble at the end of 2024, and the strong correction in the early months of 2025, at the end of April there was a first rebound

That rebound, however, did not just bring the price of Bitcoin back above $90,000, after having fallen well below $80,000, because it was followed in May by a second strong rebound that brought it back to $110,000

At that point, however, the rally temporarily stopped, because for more than a month and a half there was a lateralization with sustained volatility that did not allow the price of BTC to break further upwards

This breakthrough then arrived just before mid-July, with a very brief peak at $123,000 in the middle of the month

Well, even in this case, the following phase was one of lateralization with sustained volatility, so much so that in mid-August it recorded the new all-time high at just 124,000$, slightly more than the 123,000$ of mid-July

The pause

As soon as it surpassed $124,000, the price of Bitcoin then corrected to around $117,000

The point is that the first correction was then followed by two more corrections, of which the second might still be ongoing.

Last week indeed started with a drop to 115,000$, then continued down to 112,000$, and concluded on Friday with a rebound to 117,000$

That rebound, however, lasted little because starting from yesterday a third correction began that brought the price of BTC even below $109,000.

There is, however, an important difference

The correction from last week was accompanied, and probably generated, by an increase in the selling pressure of BTC on the exchange. This week, however, the selling pressure is stable

This suggests not only that the ongoing correction might already be about to end, but also that a period of true lateralization could begin, meaning a pause from the bullrun.

The recovery

According to the forecast of the bullrun pause, the current situation would be one of an absence of major movements, which could extend even into September

It should be noted, however, that the two recent lateralizations, the one in June and the one at the end of July/beginning of August, still recorded sustained volatility, therefore they were not periods of low movements at all

Simply, these were periods when the final price was in line with the initial one, but during which it also moved in a relatively significant way

Having said that, it is important to highlight how even the possible pause period will eventually come to an end, and the most circulating hypotheses these days are that the bullrun could resume when this period concludes

For example, in 2017, a year in some ways similar to this 2015 regarding the Bitcoin market, the bull run resumed after mid-September, and it did so in grand style

However, it should also be noted that between Wednesday evening and Thursday of the current week, some data related to the US economy will be released, which could generate volatility in the markets, and especially that on September 17, the Fed will announce its decision on rates

There are therefore events that at this time could restore directionality to the price trend of Bitcoin.