Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Finding Balance Amid Market Adjustments

1. Macroeconomic Review of This Week

1. Market sentiment is becoming cautious, with defensive assets favored.

This week, US stocks generally corrected, with the three major indices experiencing varying degrees of decline. The utilities sector rose against the trend, reflecting a shift of funds towards defensive assets. The VIX index remained above 20, indicating that the market is still in a cautious adjustment phase.

2. The performance of the commodity market is differentiated.

Gold prices have surged to a historic high, indicating a rise in safe-haven demand. Copper prices increased by 3.9%, reflecting a certain level of support from manufacturing demand. Crude oil prices remained relatively stable, but net futures positions decreased, reflecting a weak market expectation for global demand growth.

3. Cryptocurrency market synchronization adjustment

Bitcoin's short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat, but it is still supported by the liquidity environment in the long term. Altcoins are showing weakness, reflecting a decline in market risk appetite. The inflow of stablecoin funds has slowed down, indicating that market liquidity is becoming more cautious.

4. Global Supply Chain Accelerates Adjustment

The Baltic Dry Index has risen, indicating an acceleration of manufacturing activity in the Asia-Europe region. The U.S. transport index has declined, reflecting weak domestic demand. This reflects the regional restructuring of global supply chains under the influence of tariff policies.

5. Inflation data cools, but expectations diverge

CPI and PPI data both fell short of expectations, reinforcing the market's interest rate cut expectations. However, consumer inflation expectations are rising, and there are significant partisan divisions. The divergence between actual data and expectations has increased market uncertainty.

6. Liquidity easing, credit risk rising

The balance of the U.S. Treasury's General Account has decreased, and the usage of the Federal Reserve's discount window has reduced, indicating that liquidity has temporarily stabilized. However, credit spreads have widened, and CDS have risen, reflecting growing market concerns about corporate and government debt.

2. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week

1. Key Variables

• FOMC Meeting: Focus on the dot plot's guidance for interest rate cuts (expected 2-3 rate cuts)
• US Retail Sales Data
• Major Central Bank Dynamics Worldwide
• Whether QT will be suspended will become the market focus.

2. Investment Strategy Recommendations

• Stock Market: Reduce high-risk asset allocation, increase holdings in defensive sectors, focus on opportunities for undervalued quality assets.
• Crypto Market: Hold Bitcoin for the long term, reduce allocation to altcoins, and observe changes in stablecoin liquidity.
• Credit Market: Reduce exposure to high-leverage corporate bonds, increase allocation to high-rated bonds, and be wary of the risk of U.S. debt deficit.
• Attention signal: Credit market recovery or FOMC releases clearer easing signals

The current market is in a period of multiple contradictions, and investors need to maintain a cautious attitude, closely monitor changes in the credit market and policy trends, and seek potential opportunities amid market fluctuations.