Crypto market recent rise analysis: Alts season coming?

Recently, the crypto market has experienced a wave of rising prices. After Bitcoin fell below 100,000 USD on June 22, there was a brief panic in the market, but it quickly rebounded, initiating a new round of increases. This rise is not limited to mainstream coins; many long-dormant alts have also shown impressive performance.

In order to explore whether the market has truly entered the altcoin season, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of 403 trading pairs data, attempting to capture the true pulse of the market.

95% of tokens rise, with an average increase of 30%

Data shows that among 403 analyzed objects, 382 tokens are on the rise, accounting for 94.8%. The average rise is 30.38%, with a median of 25.92%. Compared to the rebound in April, this momentum is stronger.

Among them, 7 tokens rose over 100%, with a maximum increase of 335%. 34 tokens had an increase between 50% and 100%, accounting for 8.4%. Most tokens increased by less than 50%, accounting for 84.6%. This round of market conditions shows a characteristic of overall rise, reminiscent of "altcoin season". It is worth noting that 307 tokens had an increase exceeding Bitcoin's 15.31%, indicating that the majority of tokens have finally outperformed Bitcoin.

However, 20 tokens are still experiencing a decline, performing poorly.

rise top 20 alts characteristics

1. Market capitalization: Mainly concentrated in the small market cap (<1 billion) or medium market cap (1 billion-10 billion) categories, with only 3 exceeding 1 billion.
2. Category: Focused on MEME, AI, and DeFi, with 4 infrastructure projects also shortlisted.
3. Ecology: Mainly distributed across the three major public chains: Ethereum, BSC, and Solana.

track performance

Meme coins lead the way with an average rise of 42.2%. Infrastructure coins follow closely with a rise of 40.98%. Surprisingly, GameFi-related coins performed well with an average rise of 35.15%. DEX, AI, and smart contract platforms also showed impressive performance. RWA coins had a smaller rise of only 11.94%. Wallet-related coins had an average drop of 3.09%.

ecosystem performance

The Solana ecosystem leads with a rise of 39.41%. The Base ecosystem follows closely with a rise of 33.86%. Arbitrum (31.42%), Ethereum (31.14%), and BSC (28.41%) also performed notably well. The Avalanche ecosystem has a mediocre performance, with an average rise of only 10.86%.

The relationship between market cap and rise

The difference in the rise of tokens with large and small market capitalizations is not significant. Tokens with a market capitalization of over $1 billion have an average rise of 33.93%, those under $100 million at 30.41%, and those between $100 million and $1 billion at 29.45%. Small-cap and mid-cap tokens remain the market's main force, totaling 348. This round of increase shows a general rise characteristic, with a low correlation to market capitalization size.

Token launch time and performance

Tokens launched in 2024 performed the best, with an average rise of 42.76%. 2023 came in second with a rise of 34.57%. Tokens launched in 2019, 2025, and 2018 also performed well. Tokens launched in 2017 and from 2021 to 2022 performed relatively poorly. This may suggest that early projects are gradually losing market attention.

altcoin season outlook

Although the overall rise is apparent, the true altcoin season may not have arrived yet. Only 7 tokens have surpassed their 2024 highs, while 341 have failed to break their previous highs. 38 tokens are still 90% away from their 2024 highs, 146 are over 80% away, and 302 are over 50% away. Most tokens need to rise at least another double to return to 2024 levels.

From this perspective, the potential of the altcoin season is huge, but whether the current rise is just a flash in the pan or the true start of the altcoin season still requires further observation.