Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC Welcomes Profit Realization After High-Position Consolidation

Since the low point in April, BTC has rebounded by a maximum of 50%, outperforming the Nasdaq index and reaching a new all-time high.

However, the significant rise in the short term has accumulated a certain amount of selling pressure. Since May 22, a large-scale sell-off has begun in the BTC market. This has created some pressure on BTC, which is at a high level and leading the US stock market, becoming a source of downward price momentum.

This Thursday, due to the spread of panic in the market, BTC dipped to the support level of 100,000 dollars. Subsequently, the price continued to rebound, returning above the upward trend line.

With the adjustment of the US stock market, the buying power of the BTC spot ETF channel has converged, making it difficult for BTC to absorb selling pressure and continue to rise in the short term. It is worth noting that with the price correction, the outflow from exchanges has also increased significantly this week, indicating that new funds are taking advantage of the adjustment to absorb chips.

The positive non-farm payroll data has created a good atmosphere for the stabilization and rebound of BTC, but a real breakthrough to a new level may still require greater progress in tariff policies, encryption currency policies, or the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

Policies, Macroeconomic Finance and Economic Data

In May, the number of jobs in the United States increased by 139,000, slightly higher than the market expectation of 126,000. The unemployment rate in May remained at 4.2%, showing no deterioration. The data performance slightly exceeded expectations, driving the three major U.S. stock indices up, while gold fell.

The current market pricing is close to a "soft landing," meaning the economy is gradually slowing down to a sustainable growth level while avoiding severe recession or large-scale unemployment. The current economic and employment data align with this characteristic; although GDP growth has declined, it is a result of the Federal Reserve's active cooling measures, inflation data is steadily decreasing, the unemployment rate remains stable, and the number of new jobs has not significantly decreased.

However, there is still uncertainty regarding tariff policies. The leaders of the U.S. and China had their first call, and representatives from both sides will hold consultations in the UK, but they are still in the negotiation stage. Meanwhile, the U.S. raising tariffs on steel and aluminum has also triggered retaliation threats from Canada.

Overall, driven by slightly stronger than expected non-farm data and slow progress in tariff negotiations, U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar maintained a fragile balance and slightly tilted towards optimism over the past week.

crypto market

BTC's trend is leading the Nasdaq. The US stock market is gathering momentum to challenge previous highs, while BTC has set a new historical high on May 22.

Technical indicators show that BTC underwent a two-week pullback after rebounding to a new high, with a retracement of 3.07% last week and a significant fluctuation this week, slightly rising by 0.08%. The weekly chart presents a long-legged doji. During the adjustment process, trading volume is in a state of contraction.

The highest pullback in two weeks is around 10%, overall it is within the previous low points, with the lowest day being this Thursday when it tested the rising trend line.

In the context where the US stock market has not yet hit a new high, this adjustment after BTC reaches a new high is foreseeable and also benign. A certain period of fluctuation is inevitable, and for the market to reach new highs and further progress, greater advances in tariff policies, encryption currency policies, or Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be required.

Selling Pressure and Sell-off

Since April, BTC has rebounded from its low by as much as 50%. With the new historical high, there has been some selling from both short-term bottom-fishing funds and long-term funds. This selling pressure reached a peak on May 22 and has gradually decreased since then.

It is worth noting that while the sell-off has decreased, the outflow from exchanges has increased significantly, reaching 76,520.72 coins this week, far exceeding the usual weekly outflow of 10,000 to 20,000 coins. This substantial outflow can be seen as a strong recognition of the current price by long-term capital.

Capital In and Out

After the phased floating profit appeared, the funds in the ETF channel also showed signs of cashing out profits. In the past two weeks, there has been a slight outflow of funds in the BTC spot ETF channel, with 135 million last week and 128 million this week. This outflow occurred against the backdrop of a significant rise in BTC and fluctuations in the US stock market.

Although there is a technical possibility of continuing to retrace to 100,000 US dollars, it is relatively difficult to grasp. In a fragile balance of supply and demand, a breakthrough increase may occur within a day or two.

Cycle Indicator

According to data platform reports, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.