Bitcoin fluctuates, Ethereum is strong. Global financial giants actively layout stablecoin and RWA track.

A. Market View

1. Macroeconomic Liquidity

The liquidity of currencies shows signs of improvement. The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed Chair did not provide clear guidance on a possible rate cut in September, but emphasized the risks of inflation and stated that the labor market remains solid, which has somewhat suppressed market expectations for a rate cut within the year. The dollar index rose to a two-month high, and U.S. stocks continued to strengthen, reaching new highs. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market has shown relatively weak performance.

2. Overall Market Trends

This week, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level, while altcoins are showing overall weak performance, and cryptocurrency-related stocks have fallen sharply. The main focus of the market is concentrated on the Ethereum ecosystem.

Among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, the five with the largest gains are LOKA (300%), ZORA (60%), ZBCN (50%), KTA (40%), and REKT (40%). The five with the largest declines are TKX (60%), FARTCOIN (30%), M (30%), VIRTUAL (20%), and GRASS (20%).

It is worth noting that ZORA, as a social finance project, has collaborated with a certain public chain application and received support from a well-known exchange foundation, surging tenfold from its low point. The established stablecoin USDE and the newly launched stablecoin USDTB under the ENA project continue to generate profits and have established a US stock version investment company for ongoing purchases. ENA has also collaborated with a certain lending platform to release USDE revolving loans. Additionally, CFX, as a compliant domestic public chain, has also gained attention because Hong Kong plans to issue stablecoin licenses in September.

3. On-chain Data

Bitcoin liquidity is facing a severe test. An early whale sold over 80,000 bitcoins through over-the-counter transactions, with a total transaction value nearing $10 billion. Nevertheless, the market effectively absorbed this selling pressure, and currently, 97% of the circulating supply is still in profit.

The supply of stablecoins continues to grow by 1%.

Institutional funds continue to flow in. Ethereum has driven a significant increase in fund inflows, with the amount this year exceeding the total from last year.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When this indicator is greater than 6, it indicates that the market is in a top range; when it is less than 2, it is in a bottom range. Currently, the MVRV has fallen below the key level of 1, meaning that holders are generally in a state of loss. The current indicator is 2.6, close to the middle range.

4. Futures Market

Futures funding rate: This week's rate remains at a normal level of 0.01%. Generally, a rate between 0.05% and 0.1% indicates a higher long leverage, which may suggest a short-term market top; a rate between -0.1% and 0% indicates a higher short leverage, which may suggest a short-term market bottom.

Futures open interest: This week, Bitcoin futures open interest began to decline.

Futures Long-Short Ratio: Currently at 1.1, indicating that market sentiment is in a neutral state. It is generally believed that retail sentiment tends to be a contrarian indicator; a long-short ratio below 0.7 indicates market fear, while a ratio above 2.0 indicates market greed. It is important to note that the long-short ratio data can be quite volatile, reducing its reference significance.

5. Spot Market

This week, the price of Bitcoin has dropped, but the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin remains strong, with a few small-cap coins related to the stablecoin concept leading the charge. Market funds are gradually rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins, and it is expected that market risks may gradually accumulate in the future.

B. Stablecoins and RWA

1. Stablecoin Sector

The Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated at a technical briefing on the regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers that the first stablecoin issuer license is expected to be issued early next year. He emphasized that the threshold for obtaining the license is very high, and entering the "sandbox testing" phase does not necessarily mean that a license will be granted. The Monetary Authority is open to stablecoins that can be pegged to fiat currencies, and applicants can choose to be linked to a single fiat currency or a basket of fiat currencies, but this must be clearly stated at the time of application.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will open the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications from August 1 to September 30, 2025. The identities of all compliant stablecoin holders in Hong Kong must be verified, equivalent to a real-name system, to strengthen the fight against money laundering and financial crime risks. This arrangement is stricter than the "whitelist" system proposed in the previous consultation document, but if technology matures in the future, relevant regulations may be relaxed.

A blockchain company under a certain e-commerce giant has registered the names "JCOIN" and "JOYCOIN," and the market speculates that these may be the names of stablecoins it plans to issue. The registration description indicates that related services include electronic fund transfers and cryptocurrency financial transactions provided through blockchain technology. The company is one of the participants in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin issuer sandbox program and had previously collaborated with a certain bank last July to test a corporate cross-border payment solution based on stablecoins.

Analysis suggests that the issuance of stablecoins by this e-commerce giant could significantly reduce cross-border payment costs, improve settlement speed, and help it gain an advantage in the international supply chain and retail payment sectors. This move also highlights Hong Kong's appeal as a digital asset financial center and demonstrates the determination of traditional e-commerce companies to transition into the Web3 era.

A well-known payment platform announced the launch of a new payment feature in the U.S. market, allowing small merchants to accept payments in over 100 different cryptocurrencies, including major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move significantly expands the platform's service scope in the cryptocurrency payment sector and is expected to encourage more merchants to participate in digital currency transactions.

The platform's current plan is primarily aimed at small and medium-sized merchants, with the goal of lowering the threshold for merchants to use cryptocurrency assets and enhancing their flexibility and operational innovation capabilities. As more and more merchants begin to adopt cryptocurrency payment services, it is expected to promote the popularization and application of cryptocurrency assets in everyday business scenarios.

This open payment network is expected to become a bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, providing merchants with new revenue channels and offering practical support for the usability of cryptocurrencies. At the same time, this strategy enhances the platform's competitive edge in the transformation of financial technology.

WLFI will strategically invest 10 million USD in a synthetic dollar stablecoin project. This project allows users to mint USDf using various stablecoins, mainstream cryptocurrencies, or tokenized government bonds as collateral. Currently, the circulation of USDf has exceeded 1 billion USD.

Several reasons for the rapid growth of this project include: strong asset access capabilities that support multiple asset types as collateral; an attractive yield mechanism that allows USDf holders to participate in on-chain yield distribution; and the expectations of project points and potential airdrops.

2. RWA Sector

The White House Digital Assets Working Group in the United States has released an important policy report that outlines several key recommendations, including: requiring regulatory agencies to clarify the regulatory rules for crypto assets; urging Congress to pass relevant legislation; supporting blockchain tokenization of securities; opposing the issuance of a central bank digital currency by the United States; and promoting the integration of crypto technology into traditional financial infrastructure.

The Hong Kong government has released the "2025 Version Digital Asset Policy Statement", confirming Hong Kong's commitment to becoming a global digital asset innovation center. Hong Kong has introduced a licensing system for virtual asset trading platforms and will implement regulations for stablecoins. The government is advancing relevant legislation and establishing a regulatory sandbox mechanism to encourage the testing of innovative technologies. Hong Kong is actively enhancing international cooperation to promote the establishment of digital asset regulatory standards and cross-border anti-money laundering mechanisms. At the same time, regulatory authorities are also exploring the application of traditional asset tokenization and promoting the launch of related products.

A large Japanese bank acquired a high-rise office building in Osaka for approximately $680 million, planning to tokenize the asset through blockchain technology and issue digital securities. Institutional investors will primarily participate through private REITs, while retail investors can purchase tokenized shares for fractional ownership through specific platforms.

This initiative lowers the threshold for ordinary investors to participate in high-quality commercial real estate investments. The bank's token issuance model caters to both institutional and retail demands, integrating the traditional REIT structure with new digital securities, which is expected to enhance asset liquidity and market transparency.

The bank holds a partial stake in the issuance platform. Although the partner has built its own trust platform, it continues to use the issuance platform, reflecting the coexistence of competition and cooperation within the industry. This case marks a gradual transition of the Japanese asset tokenization market towards a new stage of institutional dominance and retail integration.