Crypto Market Macro Report: Selective Bull Run is Brewing

1. The macro turning point has arrived: Regulatory environment is warming up

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the macro environment has quietly changed. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the acceleration of the "accommodative framework" construction for crypto regulation globally, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

In terms of monetary policy, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning window. The market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025, expecting that real interest rates in the U.S. will gradually decline from their high levels. This opens up an upward channel for risk assets, especially the valuation of digital assets.

In terms of fiscal policy, the fiscal expansion represented by the "Big Beautiful Law" is bringing about an unprecedented capital release effect. This not only reshapes the internal circulation structure of the dollar but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital assets.

In terms of regulation, the SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change. The approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first time that U.S. regulatory agencies have acknowledged that income-generating digital assets can enter the traditional financial system. The SEC is working on establishing a unified standard for simplifying the approval of token ETFs, aiming to build a compliant financial product channel that is replicable and scalable. This represents a fundamental shift in regulatory logic from a "firewall" to a "pipeline engineering" approach.

In addition, there are signs of a recovery in risk appetite in the traditional financial markets. The S&P 500 has reached a new historical high, technology stocks and emerging assets have rebounded in sync, and the IPO market is warming up, signaling that risk capital is flowing back.

Under the dual drive of policies and the market, the brewing of the new bull run is not driven by emotions, but rather a value reassessment process driven by the system. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a milder yet more powerful manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Institutions Lead the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail and short-term funds into the hands of long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, institutions and enterprises, aiming for allocation, are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulation of Bitcoin is accelerating its "lock-up". The total amount of Bitcoin purchased by listed companies has exceeded the net buying scale of ETFs. Companies view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash substitute" rather than a short-term allocation tool.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The approval of ETH staking ETFs indicates that institutions are starting to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipated approval of Solana ETFs further expands the imagination space. Large crypto funds are applying to convert to ETFs, and the "barriers" between traditional fund management mechanisms and blockchain asset management mechanisms are being broken down.

Enterprises directly participating in the on-chain financial market have broken the isolation structure between traditional "over-the-counter investments" and the on-chain world. The market effects brought by this behavior are long-tail in nature, stabilizing market sentiment and enhancing the valuation anchoring ability of the underlying protocols.

Traditional financial institutions are actively laying out derivatives and on-chain liquidity. The active trading of crypto futures on CME indicates that traditional trading institutions have included crypto assets in their strategy models.

From the perspective of structural turnover, the decrease in activity of retail investors and short-term players has reinforced the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period." The chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors, and institutions are quietly "building their positions."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly materializing. From traditional banks to emerging retail financial platforms, all are expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This enables crypto assets to truly achieve "availability within the fiat currency system" and provides them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep expansion of the "financial commoditization" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. A truly institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, more enduring, and more thorough.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: Selective Bull Run

The current "altcoin season" is entering a new stage: the era of widespread price increases is over, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

The chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of consolidation. The ETH/BTC pair has welcomed a strong rebound for the first time, with whale addresses accumulating millions of ETH. Large on-chain transactions are frequent, indicating that main funds have started to reprice primary assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity.

The ETF application has become the anchor point of a new round of thematic structure. In particular, the spot ETF of Solana has been regarded as the next "market consensus event." Asset performance will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real income distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation," rather than a wave of market trends lifting all tokens equally.

The logic of DeFi has fundamentally changed. Users are shifting from "points airdrop type DeFi" to "cash flow type DeFi", with protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms becoming the core indicators for assessing asset value. Liquidity providers are placing greater emphasis on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and potential risk structure.

Capital selection has become more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have become key factors determining the direction of funds. Infrastructure and composable protocols built around public chains have become the new core of valuation.

Although Meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up" is over. In its place, the strategy of "platform rotation trading" has emerged. Capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide sustainable returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

The core feature of this round of the altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." The crypto market is undergoing a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but rather an upgrade of the bull market.

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Core Allocation and Event-Driven

The market layout for the third quarter of 2025 is a comprehensive restructuring of asset allocation. Investors must find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven localized outbreaks."

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows, corporate treasury accumulation, and the Federal Reserve's policies are signaling a dovish stance, BTC demonstrates strong resilience against declines and a capital absorption effect. Corporate buying has become the largest variable in the market, and the "structural accumulation" characteristic of ETFs has altered the traditional price trajectory of the halving cycle.

Solana is the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. Multiple leading institutions have submitted SOL spot ETF applications, with the approval window expected to close around September. As the staking mechanism is likely to be included in the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital for pre-positioning. SOL already has a strong cost-performance ratio and Beta elasticity, making it a strategic option for "catch-up" or even "leading".

DeFi portfolios are still worth restructuring. Focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects can refer to SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., using an equal-weight allocation method to capture the relative returns of individual projects and reinvest profits. A medium-term allocation mindset should be adopted to avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, limiting it to within 5% of the total net asset value, and manage positions with an options mindset. Set clear stop-loss mechanisms, take-profit rules, and position limits. For contract subjects launched by mainstream exchanges, a "quick in and out" strategy framework should be established.

Another key point in the third quarter is the timing of event-driven layouts. The market is in a transition period from "information vacuum" to "event-intensive release." With the Solana ETF review node approaching, a wave of "policy + capital resonance" market is expected from mid-August to early September. It is advisable to anticipate in advance and gradually build positions to avoid chasing high traps.

Focus on the volume momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's development of L2 and promotion of tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration. "Breakout" projects in the fringe sector can also be part of a high-volatility strategy, but it is essential to control positions and adhere to risk management.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must shift to a hybrid strategy of "anchored by the core, winged by events." Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the flag, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators ------ each component corresponds to different position weights and trading rhythms.

V. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is already on the way

A selective bull run driven by institutions, propelled by compliance, and supported by real earnings is brewing. Bitcoin is gradually becoming a new reserve component in the global corporate balance sheets, serving as a national-level inflation hedge. The greatest forces that will impact Bitcoin's price in the future are the buying records of institutions, the allocation decisions of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the repricing of risk asset valuation systems based on macro policy expectations.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are completing the evolution from "narrative bubble" to "system takeover". Crypto assets are transitioning from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets".

The altcoin season has not returned, but has transformed. The next market cycle will be more deeply tied to three major anchors: real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide institutions with stable return expectations, assets that can attract stable funds through ETF channels, and DeFi projects that truly have RWA mapping capabilities and can integrate with real-world volumes will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle.

This is an "elite" version of a "shanzhai", a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of pseudo-assets. Ordinary investors face both challenges and opportunities. When the market asks "Where is the next breakout point?", what you need to ask is: "Am I standing on the correct structure?" It is the restructuring of position structure, rather than the randomness of a violent game, that determines whether one can benefit from the main rising wave.

The third quarter of 2025 will be the prelude to this wealth migration. The next bull run will not ring a bell for anyone; it will only reward those who think ahead of the market. Now is the time to seriously plan your position structure, information sources, and trading rhythm. Wealth will not be distributed at the peak; it will quietly transfer before dawn.