Only Minutes Left: Analysts Share Possible Reactions of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Ahead of Donald Trump's Tariff Announcement!

Bitcoin, Ethereum, the technology-heavy S&P 500 and Japan's Nikkei 225 recorded their worst quarterly performances in over three years, reflecting a broad market decline.

The gloomy atmosphere of the market is largely due to the expected changes in global trade policy today. President Donald Trump will announce new tariffs on numerous trading partners in a speech at 22:00 (UTC+3) in the Rose Garden. Analysts are divided on whether these economic measures will be applied reciprocally or a softer approach will be adopted.

Maple Finance CEO Sid Powell pointed out the uncertainty by stating, "This decision could go either way." Powell noted that a softer stance, such as a 10% customs duty instead of the feared 25%, could trigger a risky rally in the crypto markets.

Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, suggested that the second quarter of 2025 could still follow historical seasonal trends depending on Trump's ultimate tariff strategy. Sondergaard stated, "Recent fears of tariffs driving risk-off movements seem to be approaching a local peak."

Sondergaard added that the U.S. administration's shift towards a more reciprocal and negotiation-focused approach from April to June indicates that a full-scale trade war is unlikely. However, ongoing confusion regarding country-specific tariff proposals could keep the markets volatile in the short term.

Initially, investors were expecting at least two interest rate cuts in 2025 based on signals from the FED's March 19 FOMC meeting. However, Trump's trade policies increased uncertainty, delaying a clear direction from the central bank. Sondergaard explained, "The FED adopted a 'wait and see' stance," and added, "Chairman Powell clearly stated that sentiment alone would not determine interest rate cuts, but rather concrete economic data, especially labor market indicators, would guide policy changes."

Additionally, it was noted that although the Treasury's quantitative tightening has slowed down due to tight monetary market conditions (QT), this does not indicate that the FED will take a fully dovish step.

Powell from Maple Finance reiterated these concerns, stating that the FED's monetary policy will be a key factor in determining whether the crypto markets will ease in the second quarter. Powell said, "If Trump's tariff rhetoric, which he implied was 'flexible' on April 2, shifts to lighter policies, markets may take a breather," and added: "However, liquidity tightness persists and the US dollar continues to remain strong. Without significant macroeconomic catalysts such as a drop in CPI to 2.5% or a decrease in unemployment claims, BTC's potential recovery may be limited to 100k and the markets may experience a volatile, stagnant recovery."