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Critical Turning Point for Bitcoin Price: Will Trump or the FED Save the Markets? - Coin Bulletin
According to the latest analysis by QCP Capital, markets are pinning their hopes on moves from the Trump administration or the Fed, but no concrete support is expected from either side in the short term.
In the market report dated April 9, QCP Capital stated that tensions in the markets have increased following the new additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China. The total customs duty applied to Chinese products has risen to 104%, while the VIX index, known as a measure of fear in the market, has remained above 40 for the third consecutive session. The report highlighted that even traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries have declined due to sales made by investors to meet margin calls.
According to QCP, President Trump's strategy of refinancing the US debt at low interest rates is facing difficulties due to the rise in bond yields. While 10-year US Treasury yields have risen to 4.50%, 30-year bond yields briefly exceeded 5%. It was also noted that Trump is escalating tensions by doubling down on bets at every move and that the maneuvering space for the US against China is narrowing.
Critical Levels for Bitcoin
QCP stated that, in the current situation, the markets are focused on a supportive intervention that could come from Trump or FED, but due to the unemployment rates remaining stable and inflation rising again, it is not expected that the FED will lower interest rates in the short term. Nevertheless, the market is pricing in four interest rate cuts from the FED within 2025, and there are also expectations for surprise cuts between meetings.
The report also warned that Bitcoin is consolidating around the 75 thousand dollar level, but a potential new sharp decline in stocks could negatively affect the BTC price. Ethereum, on the other hand, continues to decline towards 1,400 dollar levels that have not been seen since the beginning of 2023, showing weak performance. QCP analysts also emphasized that the high volatility environment has made option strategies with returns attractive again in cryptocurrencies.