Wu's macro indicators and analysis for this week: US inflation data CPI, PPI

Compiled by: GaryMa Wu said Blockchain

Abstract Wu said this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected; this week, the focus is on the U.S. April inflation data, CPI and PPI, etc. Currently, the market generally expects the transmission effect of tariffs to become apparent, and inflation may rise in the coming months, which will in turn affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Last week review

China's April Caixin Services PMI was 50.7, down from 51.9 in March and below the expected value of 51.7.

The Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) to be 4.50%, in line with the expected 4.50%, previous value 4.50%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at a press conference that the current monetary policy stance remains flexible enough to respond promptly to economic changes. However, if inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously, it will face complex decisions. He pointed out that the rate cuts in 2024 are not preventive measures and are even slightly lagging. The recent rise in inflation expectations was mainly driven by tariffs, and if tariffs persist, the inflation effects may be more lasting. When asked about Trump's pressure to cut rates, Powell responded: "This does not affect our work; we will always use policy tools to support maximum employment and achieve price stability."

The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from 4.5% to 4.25%.

Key Events & Indicators This Week May 13

U.S. April Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year (20:30)

The Bank of Japan announced the summary of opinions from the Monetary Policy Meeting on April (07:50)

May 15

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending May 10 is ( million ) (20:30)

US April PPI YoY (20:30)

The Federal Reserve held the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference.

May 16

U.S. May one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value (22:00)

U.S. May Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary (22:00)