Can Bitcoin die if quantum computers succeed?

Recent advancements in the field of quantum computing have raised many concerns among the Bitcoin investor community, with many fearing that this could lead to a market collapse. But could a leap in quantum technology actually cause the price of Bitcoin to fall to zero?

Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: Real but Exaggerated

As of mid-2025, experts believe that the real threat from quantum computers to Bitcoin will not emerge before the 2030–2035 period. By then, we may witness the emergence of specialized devices, cloud computing services, and new operating software layers. However, the prospect of owning a quantum computer right at home remains as distant as having a supercomputer in the living room.

Currently, quantum technology has made significant progress. Google's Willow processor with 105 qubits and Microsoft's Majorana 1 chip are clear evidence of the development towards stable quantum computers.

However, even with these advancements, quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin's cryptographic system are still many years away. According to experts, to pose a direct threat, quantum computers need to achieve around 1,500–3,000 stable qubits with full error correction.

Quantum computers and the threat to Bitcoin

Quantum computers operate quite differently from traditional computers. Not only are they faster, but they also have the ability to solve certain complex problems—especially cryptographic problems—almost instantly.

This raises significant concerns for Bitcoin, as like most other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin relies heavily on cryptography to secure transactions and wallets. If a breakthrough in quantum technology were to occur suddenly, Bitcoin addresses using older encryption methods would immediately become vulnerable to attacks. In fact, this could even affect Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, which holds nearly 1.1 million BTC.

According to estimates, around 25% of the total Bitcoin currently is stored in reused addresses, which puts billions of USD at risk of being exploited if a quantum attack occurs.

Short-term scenario: Panic and price drop

If a sudden quantum breakthrough occurs, the market may fall into a state of panic, leading to a strong wave of sell-offs. In the worst-case scenario, the price of Bitcoin could drop by 30% to 50% in just a few days.

However, this does not mean that Bitcoin will lose all its value. Developers have the ability to respond quickly by upgrading the network to quantum-resistant encryption standards. These emergency measures may include moving to safer new addresses and implementing advanced encryption methods to protect the system from attacks.

The power of decentralization

Transitioning to quantum-resistant technology is a complex task that requires close coordination among miners, exchanges, and wallet providers. However, the decentralization of Bitcoin is a significant advantage, allowing the community to quickly implement necessary updates.

The long-term resilience of Bitcoin depends on the flexibility and responsiveness of the cryptocurrency community. If upgrade solutions are implemented in a timely manner, the value of Bitcoin may stabilize and recover after the initial shock, thereby maintaining investor confidence.

The threat from quantum computers: Not an immediate issue

Although the threat from quantum technology is real, it is not an immediate concern. Experts predict that the actual timeline for this threat to become serious will fall around 2030–2035. This gives the cryptocurrency community a valuable window of time to prepare and implement necessary protective measures.

Conclusion

In summary, a breakthrough in quantum technology, if it occurs as soon as tomorrow, could cause significant disruption to the Bitcoin market in the short term. However, the likelihood of it completely erasing the value of Bitcoin is very low. With timely preparation and response, Bitcoin can absolutely overcome this challenge and continue to maintain its position in the global financial ecosystem.

Mr. Teacher