Will the price of Bitcoin fall sharply or soar to $110,000 this summer?

The price movement of Bitcoin is at a critical level this June. With various technical signals, on-chain data, and large capital inflows into exchanges, the question is: will Bitcoin fall below 100,000 USD or surpass the 110,000 USD mark?

Bitcoin whale activity raises concerns for the market

The Tether Lending Collateral Custody wallet transferred 200 BTC to the Binance exchange on June 7, 2025. This amount, worth approximately 20.88 million USD, has raised the total BTC sent by this wallet to 1,650 BTC since May 9. This day marks Bitcoin's return above 100,000 USD, and these movements are raising concerns about the potential for a sell-off.

On-chain data from Lookonchain shows that Binance has received 3,200 BTC in net inflow over the past week. This pattern indicates that liquidity on exchanges is increasing, often foreshadowing an increase in volatility. Traders and institutions closely monitor this activity to look for market signals.

Bitcoin is currently trading at 105,500 USD. With this price still below strong resistance, analysts are watching to see if the recent inflow of funds will lead to further fall.

Bitcoin faces major resistance amid a bearish pattern

Cryptocurrency analysts remain divided on the short-term trend of Bitcoin. Renowned chart analyst Carl Moon recently commented: "Bitcoin has almost reached the target I mentioned a few days ago before the fall!"

His technical analysis focuses on a breakout from an upward channel, followed by an unsuccessful retest of the lower boundary near 105,600 USD. This area, previously a support level, is now acting as a strong resistance.

Carl's chart highlights a bearish flag pattern that has formed after a breakout. This structure often leads to a continued decline. The flag was rejected at 105,600 USD, reinforcing the short-term bearish trend. From this point, Carl predicts a drop of 5.25%, which would bring the price of Bitcoin closer to 100,000 USD—a significant psychological and technical support level.

If it fails, the next support level could be around 96,000 USD. The rejection at a previous support level has turned into resistance and the lack of bullish continuation suggests that sellers are currently controlling market momentum.

Macroeconomic trends and organizational activities still support

Despite short-term fall patterns, institutional interest remains stable. On June 5th, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF recorded 15 million USD in inflows. This indicates that some large investors continue to accumulate despite deposits from whales.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks have also shown strength. On June 6, Strategy stocks rose by 3%, and Nasdaq increased by 1.2%. The 30-day correlation of Bitcoin with the Nasdaq Composite remains around 0.7, indicating that both are influenced by global risk sentiment.

Historical models also support the idea of further price increase. According to analyst Klarch, Bitcoin has significantly risen in the months following previous halving events. He notes that Bitcoin increased by 280% after the 2016 halving and over 500% after the 2020 event. So far, the price increase after the 2024 halving has only reached 70%.

Technical indicators show the bearish momentum of Bitcoin

According to the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin Magazine, the price of Bitcoin is currently around 105,511 USD, less than 1,000 USD away from the upper Bollinger band at 106,589 USD. This suggests that it may be somewhat overbought in the near future. The bands have widened, indicating more volatility and the trend may continue to rise.

At the current price level, the market is seeing strong support from last week's trades. A strong bullish signal appears on the MACD 12, 26, 9 with the moving average convergence divergence line at +238 above the signal line at -13. A reading of +252 on the histogram chart indicates that growth momentum is increasing.

This type of pattern is often followed by a price increase in the coming weeks, especially when it appears after a recent decline. However, the price of Bitcoin continues to move within the bounds of 101,000 USD to 110,000 USD. A move below the mid-Bollinger band of Bitcoin could be a sign that consolidation is about to occur. If Bitcoin breaks above 107,000 USD, this could indicate that bullish investors are in control and could potentially drive the price higher.

Mr. Teacher