Bigger Than Coca-Cola? If Tether Goes Public, It Could Reach a Valuation of 515 Billion USD

A recent analysis published by Artemis CEO Jon Ma has sparked a discussion about the potential market value of Tether, suggesting that if the company lists, its valuation could reach $515 billion. This figure would place Tether among the largest corporations in the world by market capitalization, surpassing well-known names like Costco and Coca-Cola.

Jon Ma's analysis provides several important comparisons and assumptions to arrive at this valuation. The issuer of USDC, Circle, has recently listed with a market capitalization of 30 billion dollars. Ma's financial model predicts that Circle will achieve 410 billion dollars in EBITDA by 2025, equivalent to an EBITDA multiple of 69.3 times. Tether reported a net profit of $13 billion in 2024, with $7 billion coming from the Treasury and repurchase agreements and $5 billion from unrealized gains from Bitcoin and gold holdings, of which the latter is not included in the EBITDA calculation, prompting Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, to provide the following valuation: "It seems a bit pessimistic when considering the current Bitcoin + Gold treasury ( and our increasing )." However, he acknowledged that $515 billion is a "pretty number" and he is "humble" in the face of this valuation. Comments from Bitcoin advocates and entrepreneurs Jack Mallers and Anthony Pompliano suggest that the valuation should be at least $1 trillion. How to calculate Tether's valuation of 515 billion dollars Jon Ma's forecast is that Tether will increase the supply of USDT by $50–60 billion by 2025, resulting in an average supply of $170 billion. With an average Federal Fund Ratio of 4.2%, this would imply that the projected EBITDA in 2025 is around $7.4 billion. By applying Circle's current 69.3x EBITDA multiple to Tether's projected EBITDA, the analysis would reach $515 billion. However, Jon Ma notes that using Circle's current EBITDA multiple is a strong assumption and may not be sustainable, highlighting the speculative nature of the calculation. Tether, the issuer of the stablecoin USDT, has become a cornerstone of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. USDT is widely used for trading, remittances, and as a stable store of value, with a steadily increasing supply as demand for stablecoins rises. Under the leadership of Ardoino, Tether has maintained its position as the largest stablecoin by market capitalization and is the third-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ardoino, who is also the CTO of Bitfinex, emphasized the importance of transparency and security in Tether's operations. The company's profits mainly come from interest earned on its reserves, including U.S. Treasuries and repos, as well as profits from Bitcoin and gold holdings. In recent years, Tether has expanded its product portfolio to include stablecoins pegged to other currencies, such as the euro (EURT), gold (XAUt), Mexican peso (MXNT), and offshore Chinese yuan (CNHT). Tether's stablecoins are used by millions of individuals and organizations around the world, facilitating efficient cross-border transactions and serving as a bridge between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market. The company has also invested in initiatives related to technology and sustainable energy, continuing to integrate into the global economy. Although the valuation of 515 billion dollars is a theoretical exercise based on the current market multiples, it highlights the significant influence of Tether in the cryptocurrency and traditional finance sectors. However, whether Tether will become one of the next successful IPO stories in cryptocurrency remains to be seen.