The price of SOL is heading towards the 300 USD mark - The likelihood of the SOL ETF being approved has surged to 91%.

The price of Solana (SOL) has recorded an increase of 6.2% in the past 24 hours, currently trading around the 167 USD mark at the time of writing. However, this price is still 43% lower than the historical peak of 294 USD set on January 19.

However, many fundamental, on-chain, and technical indicators are signaling that SOL may continue its upward trend, even surpassing the 330 USD mark to reach a new peak in the near future.

OI volume approaches historical peak

The price increase of SOL on Wednesday was accompanied by a rise in the number of leveraged positions. The total open interest for Solana futures contracts reached 7.54 billion USD, up 12% in the past 24 hours and over 20% compared to last week. This figure is currently only 12% lower than the record of 8.57 billion USD achieved on January 19.

This reflects a strong demand for SOL derivatives – a sign of increasing interest from institutions, but it also carries risks if prices adjust sharply.

The OI chart of Solana futures | Source: CoinGlassAlthough liquidation pressure may occur if SOL adjusts deeply, the current derivatives data still leans towards a bullish scenario.

TVL and the number of active wallets on Solana increase significantly

Since April, the metrics related to decentralized applications (DApp) on Solana have started to flourish. The total value locked (TVL) on the network – representing the amount of assets deposited in smart contracts – has risen to its highest level since June 2022, reaching 56.8 million SOL (tương about USD) 9.1 billion.

! Solana TVL Chart | Source: DefiLlamaHowever, to confirm that this increase comes from the actual activity of DApp users, investors need to further monitor the number of active wallets in the ecosystem. In the last 24 hours, the number of wallet addresses interacting with DApps on Solana has increased by 38.5%, reaching 2.7 million.

The top 5 DApps have recorded impressive increases of 77% to 300% in daily active wallets (UAW), according to the chart below. This indicates a growing interest in the layer-1 Solana, leading to an increased demand for SOL tokens.

! DApp Solana last 24 hours on-chain data | Source: DappRadar## Probability of SOL ETF Approval Soars to 91%

According to data from Polymarket, the likelihood that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approve Solana's spot ETF in 2025 increased to 91% on Wednesday.

! Probability Solana ETF Approved | Source: PolymarketThe applications for opening Solana spot ETFs come from a series of asset management giants such as VanEck, Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise and Canary Capital, showing the real demand for SOL investment products with clear legal regulations.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst – Eric Balchunas – stated that the SEC may "act soon" on SOL ETF filings, raising the approval probability to 90%.

"Get ready for an Altcoin ETF summer, with Solana likely to lead the wave."

If approved, these ETFs could help institutional capital flow strongly into the market, driving demand for SOL to soar. Some analysts even predict that the potential price could reach up to 1,300 USD.

Bull flag pattern signals a target of 335 USD

On the weekly timeframe, the price of SOL is forming a "bull flag" ( – a bullish pattern that occurs when the price temporarily adjusts within a downward slope after a strong previous increase.

! [])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-49d8c128888f7898fadb07719362b863(SOL/USD Daily Chart | Source: TradingViewUsually, when the price breaks out of the upper trendline, the next target will be the height of the previous uptrend. In this case, the theoretical target is $335 – a 103% increase from the current price.

The weekly RSI is also reflecting the possibility of a strong increase. Specifically, SOL's RSI has risen from 36 on March 31 to 51 this week – confirming positive momentum. However, to establish a sustainable uptrend, the SOL/USD pair needs to break through the $190 resistance and turn it into a new support zone.

Justin

SOL0.37%
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