The next move of the market depends on the Fed's ambiguity.

Currently, there is a heated debate about the future of the economy in America, interest rates, and the market, and no one seems to be able to predict the next trend. This uncertainty was clearly reflected in the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed), where Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the term "uncertainty" nearly 20 times during the press conference after the meeting. Investors, including those in the crypto market, are looking for a clear signal on when the central bank might start cutting down the whales, but instead, they only received the firm response: "We don't know."

According to a Bloomberg report, traders have sought guidance from the Fed amid rising risks, from tensions in the Middle East to the resurgent trade conflict between America and China. Instead of receiving specific guidance, they were reminded that the bank needs more evidence before feeling secure in adjusting the benchmark interest rate. This also creates a cautious sentiment in the crypto market, where volatility can be significantly influenced by monetary policy decisions.

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, summarized the general mood of the market: "If anything, the Fed's reading and response attitude shows that people really don't know anything right now. As an investor, you can't trade this, you can't get ahead of it." Similarly, in the crypto market, many investors are also feeling confused by the unpredictable fluctuations.

The S&P 500 index is currently less than 3% below its all-time high, but there has been almost no significant volatility over the past month. Only two days recorded fluctuations of more than 1%, while this index has hardly changed over the past two weeks, despite oil prices rising sharply and the dollar weakening. This also creates a similar context in the crypto market, where coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are struggling to establish an upward trend.

Conflicting headlines leave investors in a deadlock

On Thursday, during a holiday in America, S&P futures fell more than 1% in early trading after reports that officials were preparing for a potential attack on Iran. However, when former President Donald Trump stated that he prioritized diplomacy, the decline paused. On Friday morning, Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rate cuts could begin as early as July, causing futures to rise sharply when the official trading session opened. However, these gains quickly faded after reports of missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, as well as plans to restrict semiconductor factories in China from the Trump administration. At the end of the trading session, the index fell 0.2%.

"The S&P 500 index is not breaking in either direction as we are facing opposing winds," Ladner noted. Meanwhile, the crypto market is also not escaping a similar stalemate, as many major coins are unable to break out of their current price levels.

The Fed maintained interest rates steady this week, with most members voting for two anticipated cuts of 0.25% this year. However, these predictions are merely grounded guesses, as inflation could be higher than expected, and it remains unclear how strong the labor market will be amid rising global risks.

"No one holds these interest rate paths with much confidence," Powell remarked. "We anticipate a significant amount of inflation in the coming months, and we must take that into account." This could further increase volatility in the crypto market, which often reacts strongly to changes in monetary policy.

The crypto market faces new challenges

Investors are adjusting their strategies accordingly. Strategists at Deutsche Bank, led by Parag Thatte, report that overall stock positions have fallen this week, with discretionary managers moving from slightly below neutral to significantly below. Currently, stock bets are lower within their normal range. Similarly, in the crypto market, investors are also becoming more cautious, with many turning to safer asset types amid this uncertainty.

"The Fed is also facing uncharted territory," said Bill Sterling, a global strategist at GW&K Investment Management. He noted that modern history does not provide an easy model for the current tariff increases among major economies. "Long-term investors would be wise not to make sudden changes in their portfolio allocations due to news headlines," Sterling advised.

The factors that have driven a 20% increase in 2023 and 2024, such as excitement about AI, strong profits, and resilient consumers, remain intact. However, concerns about policy, geopolitics, slowing growth, and pressure from consumers are keeping stocks and cryptocurrencies from rising higher.

In its latest forecasts, the Fed has cut its growth projections for 2025 and raised its estimates for unemployment and inflation. Recent data shows mixed signals. America's manufacturing activity contracted in May for the third consecutive month. Industrial production fell again, imports dropped to a 16-year low, hiring cooled down, and retail sales were the weakest since January. However, the consumer price index for May increased less than economists' expectations for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that tariffs have not yet pushed consumer prices higher.

All of this poses a significant challenge for traders, including those participating in the crypto market, as they try to prepare for the second half of 2025. "The Fed has rolled out its reaction function," noted Kevin Brocks of 22V Research. "But investors will have to wait and see what the actual impact of tariffs on inflation will be."

Mr. Giáo