Among the current 3 lending protocols, I am most optimistic about KAMINO.



AAVE's TVL is leading the pack, with Defilama showing a TVL of $27B, while its own official website states $25B. The net profit for the year is around $80M, and the current market cap is $4.9B, with a PE ratio of about 60 times and an MC/TVL ratio of approximately 0.16. The market has high expectations for it, positioning it as the future on-chain Citibank, with no competitors in the EVM ecosystem. The token is almost fully circulated, and a buyback mode has been initiated. However, I am personally not optimistic about the future growth of lending on ETH. ETH will ultimately become the choice of public chains for various countries, but it will not become a public chain used by everyday users. 90% of the assets on AAVE are on the ETH mainnet; although the scale is large, I do not foresee a significant expansion in its usage scale. The current valuation given by the market is already too high.

Morpho is the strongest competitor to AAVE, with a TVL of $4.76B. Morpho has not yet activated the 'fee switch' to generate profits, but it is expected to yield $20M per year once activated. Its current market cap is $600M, (, with an FDV of $1.9B, ), and a PE ratio of about 30 times. The MC/TVL ratio is approximately 0.11. Morpho has a solid fundamental outlook, but the upcoming token unlock pressure is too significant. If we only look at FDV, there is not much room for growth, especially since its TVL is more than 5 times lower than AAVE, while the FDV is only about 2 times lower. Currently, it is too expensive.

Kamino is the leading lending protocol on Solana, with a TVL of $4B. Currently, it has an annual profit of around $20M, and revenue of $103M, which is roughly the same as Morpho. However, its market capitalization is relatively low at only $300M (FDV $600M), with a PE ratio of about 15 times, and an MC/TVL ratio of about 0.075. Comparatively, it is the "cheapest" among these three protocols. However, as a leading protocol on Solana, its future growth potential is comparable to AAVE and Morpho. After all, USDC's stronghold is on Solana, and I personally believe in the continued development of stablecoins on Solana. Therefore, Kamino is a promising asset with long-term value for me. The only current issue is the selling pressure from the continued token unlocks. The project team is currently focused on increasing TVL to $10B and is not concentrating on the token price, which is a good thing.

Buying gradually below 0.6 is a target that can be held for more than a year.
KMNO1.82%
AAVE-1.67%
ETH0.69%
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