Stablecoins Reshape the Global Credit Intermediary Landscape

Stablecoin is accelerating adoption again, expected to reach $300 billion by the end of 2025 and $1 trillion by 2030. The three main factors driving this trend are:

1. Stablecoins as a savings tool, especially in emerging market countries.
2. Stablecoins as an efficient tool for cross-border payments.
3. DeFi offers higher than market dollar yields.

This transformation will have a profound impact on the global financial system:

• Traditional bank deposits will shift to stablecoin, particularly from emerging markets and regional banks to US Treasuries and major financial institutions.
• Regional banks may face credit tightening due to a decrease in their deposit base.
• Stablecoin issuers will become important buyers in the U.S. Treasury market.
• New asset management channels will emerge, including on-chain yield products.

This trend has accelerated the shift from bank loans to non-bank loans following the 2008 financial crisis. Stablecoins and DeFi protocols are becoming the dominant credit intermediaries in the digital age, which will have profound implications for monetary policy, financial stability, and the global financial architecture.

As the scale expands, stablecoin issuers may be forced to diversify their portfolios, including commercial credit and mortgage-backed securities, to avoid over-reliance on a single financial product. Meanwhile, on-chain "treasuries" will provide consumers with attractive yield opportunities, forming new asset management channels.

Overall, the rise of stablecoins represents a reconstruction of global credit intermediaries, bringing new opportunities and challenges to the financial markets. It will reshape the ways of saving, payment, and investment, while also potentially exacerbating the centralization of the financial system. Regulators and market participants need to closely monitor this trend to ensure financial stability and inclusive growth.