Global Macroeconomic Environment and Crypto Market Outlook: Analysis for the Second Half of 2025

1. Review of the Global Macro Environment in the First Half of 2025

In the first half of 2025, the global macroeconomic landscape continued to exhibit multiple uncertainties. Factors such as weak growth, persistent inflation, unclear monetary policy outlook from the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical tensions have intertwined, leading to a significant contraction in global risk appetite. The dominant logic of macroeconomics and monetary policy has gradually evolved from "inflation control" to "signal game" and "expectation management." The crypto market, as a front-line indicator of global liquidity changes, also showed evident synchronized fluctuations in this complex environment.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path, by early 2025, the market reached a consensus on "three rate cuts within the year", but this optimistic expectation quickly encountered reality shocks. After the March FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve emphasized that "inflation is far from the target" and warned that the labor market remains tight. In April and May, the year-on-year CPI exceeded expectations, and the core PCE year-on-year growth rate has consistently remained above 3%, reflecting that "sticky inflation" has not faded as expected. At the June meeting, the Federal Reserve once again chose to "pause rate cuts" and lowered its expectations for the number of rate cuts for the year.

At the same time, the Trump administration accelerated the promotion of the "strong dollar + strong borders" strategy, exacerbating the "divide" between fiscal and monetary policy. The Treasury Department is pushing for the legalization of dollar stablecoins, attempting to leverage Web3 and fintech products to overflow dollar assets. Tariff policies have also become one of the dominant variables in market turbulence, with the United States continuously imposing high tariffs on various goods.

The ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions has a substantial impact on market sentiment. Ukraine's destruction of Russian strategic bombers has triggered confrontations between NATO and Russia, while attacks on oil infrastructure in the Middle East have led to a surge in crude oil prices. These events did not drive Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise in tandem; instead, they prompted safe-haven funds to flow into gold and short-term U.S. Treasury markets.

From the perspective of global capital flow, there is a noticeable trend of "de-emerging marketization" in the first half of 2025. The net outflow of funds from emerging market bonds has reached a record high for a single quarter, while the North American market has seen a relative net inflow of funds. The crypto market is also not isolated, as small and medium-cap tokens and DeFi derivatives have encountered large-scale capital outflows, showing signs of "asset stratification" and "structural rotation."

II. Reconstruction of the Dollar System and the Evolution of the Role of Cryptocurrency

Since 2020, the dollar system has been undergoing a deep structural reconstruction. This reconstruction stems from the instability of the global monetary order itself and the crisis of institutional trust, and its evolutionary trajectory profoundly affects the market position, regulatory logic, and asset roles of cryptocurrencies.

In terms of internal structure, the dollar credit system is facing "the erosion of the logic of monetary policy anchoring." The clarity and predictability of the Federal Reserve's policy logic are gradually being undermined by the "strong fiscal-weak central bank" combination. The Treasury Department continues to strengthen the shaping of the dollar's internationalization path while bypassing traditional monetary policy tools. For example, it has launched the "compliance stablecoin strategic framework" to support the global spillover of dollar assets through on-chain issuance in the Web3 network.

In terms of external challenges, the dollar system is facing ongoing tests from multilateral currency mechanisms. Multiple countries are accelerating the advancement of local currency settlement, bilateral clearing agreements, and the construction of commodity-linked digital asset networks, aiming to weaken the monopoly position of the dollar in global settlements.

In this pattern, Bitcoin's role is shifting from "decentralized payment tool" to "sovereignty-agnostic anti-inflation asset" and "liquidity channel under institutional gaps." In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin is being widely used in some countries to hedge against local currency devaluation and capital controls. Ethereum, on the other hand, is evolving into a "system access platform," with more and more activities being incorporated into compliant frameworks.

Overall, the dollar system is re-dominating the digital asset market through technological spillover, institutional integration, and regulatory penetration, aiming to make encryption assets an embedded component of the "digital dollar world." True encryption assets are no longer "rebels," but have become "arbitrageurs in the institutional gray area."

3. On-chain Data Perspective: New Changes in Capital Structure and User Behavior

In the first half of 2025, on-chain data presents a complex scenario of "structural sedimentation and marginal recovery interweaving." The proportion of long-term holders on the Bitcoin blockchain has once again reached a historical high, the supply pattern of stablecoins has shown significant recovery, and while the DeFi ecosystem has restored its activity, it still demonstrates strong risk aversion.

Regarding Bitcoin, over 70% of Bitcoin has not moved on-chain for more than 12 months, setting a new historical high. The holding time distribution curve is "shifting to the right", with an increasing number of on-chain coins being locked for 2 years or more. This reflects that structural funds are beginning to dominate the distribution logic of on-chain BTC.

The stablecoin market has emerged from a clear bottom recovery cycle. The market capitalization of USDC has returned to a growth trajectory, and new stablecoins such as USDP and USDe have recorded significant growth rates. The rise in on-chain activity also proves that stablecoins are returning to their essence as "payment and circulation tools" among on-chain users.

The DeFi ecosystem shows a subtle situation of "active repair but risk-neutral." Decentralized derivatives and perpetual contract protocols demonstrate activity far exceeding other sub-sectors, but the capital utilization rate is low, indicating that while market participants frequently test the waters, there has not been an overall systemic accumulation of leverage.

Overall, the on-chain data in the first half of 2025 reveals that the crypto market is in a complex junction of "chip reconstruction - expectation compression - marginal repair of heat." The funding structure is shifting towards a composite structure characterized by structural sedimentation at the base and short-term trading on the surface, while user behavior is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term speculation and long-term allocation.

4. Analysis and Strategy Recommendations for the Crypto Market Trends in the Second Half of the Year

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the crypto market will enter a critical turning point of macro and structural resonance. The core variables are the dynamic game among multi-dimensional macro paths, institutional certainty, and on-chain structural reconstruction. The market is approaching a "window reassessment period," where policy expectation adjustments, repricing of the real interest rate environment, and reshaping of investor risk pricing models will together form the main logical thread of market volatility and trends in the next 6 to 9 months.

From a macro policy perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and the marginal changes in U.S. dollar liquidity remain decisive forces. As the U.S. labor market shows signs of marginal loosening, corporate investment willingness declines, and deflationary signs emerge, the probability of the Federal Reserve entering a "symbolic rate cut" or even a "preventive rate cut" channel increases. Once the Federal Reserve makes its first rate cut, even a modest attempt of 25bps, it could quickly trigger an emotional amplification effect in the crypto market.

However, the uncertainty brought about by the global political cycle will continue to overshadow asset pricing logic. The U.S. presidential election, the redistribution of power in the European Parliament, the decoupling of Russia from Western finance, and the China-U.S. trade game may all cause temporary disturbances to investors' risk appetite and capital flows. Throughout the second half of the year, the crypto market will be dominated by the "scissors difference" of moderately loose macro policies and highly uncertain geopolitical situations, presenting a volatile upward pattern of "pulse rise - policy suppression - structural rotation."

From the perspective of market structure, the crypto market is entering a mid-to-late stage of "ETF fund dominance, stable on-chain structure, and slowing thematic rotation." Bitcoin spot ETFs have become the dominant incremental force in the market, with their net inflow rhythm almost directly determining the BTC price trend. The on-chain structure is gradually stabilizing, with the LTH-dominated chip distribution de-liquefying, stablecoin activity repairing, and the DeFi ecosystem continuously expanding, all indicating that the market is forming a more resilient internal operating system.

In terms of tactical operation suggestions, asset allocation should pay more attention to the "coordination of structure and rhythm". Bitcoin remains the most certain mainline asset, suitable for a dual-track layout through ETFs and cold wallets. Ethereum has gaming flexibility, but one should be cautious of the potential Alpha loss due to weakened innovation momentum in on-chain applications. "High-speed public chains" like Solana and TON have certain valuation repair space, but participation positions and rhythms should be strictly controlled. It is recommended to allocate a certain proportion of positions for strategically capturing the secondary rotation potential of Meme-type assets.

From the perspective of institutional and strategic research, the second half of 2025 is more suitable for constructing a "defensive bull market framework" rather than an aggressive bull market expectation. It is recommended to focus on indicators such as changes in the Federal Reserve's policy path, ETF fund flows, and the circulation and activity changes of stablecoins on the blockchain as "leading signals" for the market's phase shift.

Overall, in the second half of 2025, the crypto market will enter a "structural sedimentation shifting to policy-driven" mid-term recovery cycle. Although market trends are not absolutely unilateral, under the multiple forces of macro warming, on-chain optimization, and capital rotation recovery, there is a strategic basis for achieving a "slow bull breakthrough in range oscillation." The key lies in whether investors can understand the rhythm of macro changes, anchor on-chain data trends, and thereby build a long-term strategic layout with a high win rate amid fluctuations and tug-of-war.