Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC Fluctuates at High Levels, Trade Dispute Comes to Light

The opening price of BTC this week was $108,386.44, and the closing price was $109,217.98, with an increase of 0.77%. The highest price for the week was $110,590, and the lowest price was $105,119.70, with a fluctuation of 5.05%. The trading volume continues to shrink.

The market has been relatively calm over the past week, with macro factors still dominating BTC's trend. The impact of important events such as employment data, new legislation, and tariff disputes has not exceeded market expectations.

A whale holding over 80,000 BTC, which has been dormant for more than 14 years, has recently started to move assets, putting some psychological pressure on the market. As the BTC price approaches historical highs again, the trend of long-term holders reducing their holdings may re-emerge.

However, there are also positive signs emerging. After being quiet for more than a month, the activity level of funds in the market has begun to increase. This activity may resonate with off-market funds, driving BTC to start the fourth wave of this bull market.

Macro Environment and Economic Data

This Wednesday, three major macro events intertwined to impact the crypto market.

First, the U.S. employment data exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate for June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. In-depth analysis revealed that although private sector jobs decreased, state government jobs increased significantly. The latest employment data alleviated market concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy but also reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July, ultimately having a relatively neutral impact on the market.

Secondly, the U.S. President signed a new bill, becoming the most important political achievement of his current term. The bill includes large-scale tax cuts, increased government budgets, and spending cuts, which may lead to a long-term decrease in dollar credit, an increase in debt, and a reduction in government revenue. However, in the short term, it will significantly stimulate the economy. Despite considerable controversy, the financial markets remain generally positive, pushing the S&P 500 index to a new high.

Finally, the "peer-to-peer tariff war" has entered its third phase. The U.S. President announced that he has signed a "tariff letter" targeting 12 countries, setting country-specific tax rates ranging from 10% to 70%, expected to take effect on August 1. This brings new uncertainty to global trade, inflation, and market sentiment. Due to the highest tax rates exceeding expectations, the market reaction is slightly negative, but the impact is limited.

The current US economy shows characteristics of a soft landing or no landing, with expectations to start interest rate cuts in September. The new bill is expected to be beneficial for US stocks in the short term, and the tariff dispute is about to come to a close. With the expectation of interest rate cuts, US stocks may continue to rise. However, considering the current valuations are not low, it is important to closely monitor changes in corporate profitability and the impact of tariffs on the economy and employment.

Crypto Market Dynamics

Compared to the previous weeks, the BTC market is relatively calm this week, but changes are brewing internally.

On July 2, BTC once again validated the "first rising trend line of the bull market", fluctuating around $108,000 for most of the week, and making the third attempt to break the historical high of $110,000 in 8 months.

The BTC retail market shows clear differentiation, with a decline in trading activity on the exchange, and on-chain activity and the number of new addresses performing moderately. However, the BTC spot ETF market is active, with continuous capital inflow.

Currently, the price trend of BTC is mainly influenced by the funds from the spot ETF channel, with its correlation to the Nasdaq index rising to 0.94.

Some changes are happening, with on-chain lending rates and the 30-day average premium rate of the contract market rebounding from the bottom. If this trend continues, coupled with the continuous inflow of funds into the spot ETF channel, on-chain funds are starting to resonate with long positions, and the fourth wave of the rise may be approaching.

capital flow

After a significant rebound, capital inflows have shown divergence, with inflows through stablecoin channels weakening, while capital through BTC spot ETF channels remains relatively stable.

This week, the BTC spot ETF channel saw an inflow of 790 million USD, a decrease compared to last week, but still maintained a high level. The stablecoin channel recorded an inflow of 1.574 billion USD, which is basically in line with last week.

selling pressure and selling

As BTC challenges $110,000 again, long-term holders seem to be restarting their sell-offs.

From the scale of inflows to the exchange, the total selling scale of long and short-term holders has still been shrinking this week, providing support for the rise in BTC prices.

However, an ancient wallet holding over 80,000 BTC, which had been dormant for 14 years, showed unusual activity this week, causing a significant increase in on-chain liquidation value.

If BTC breaks through 110,000 USD, it will initiate the fourth wave of rise, and long-term holders and the selling of aged BTC may be triggered again. These sell-offs will jointly determine the new price level of BTC along with buying pressure.

cyclical indicators

According to the analysis engine data, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.