Market Observation Weekly Report [6.16 - 6.20]: Geopolitical Impact Intensifies, Mainstream Tokens Experience Fluctuations and Adjustments, Market Poised for Action at High Levels

Funding repairs are limited by geopolitical factors, mainstream cryptocurrencies are consolidating at high levels

The warming of macro disturbances has triggered a brief risk aversion sentiment in the market, with expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increasing, leading to a heavier overall wait-and-see sentiment.

On the funding side, cryptocurrency ETFs have returned to net inflows, but the momentum has slowed. The growth rate of stablecoin issuance has declined, and the USDT premium has weakened, reflecting a cautious attitude towards capital entering the market.

The trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies are diverging, with Bitcoin facing resistance and pulling back after a surge, while Ethereum is catching up but with weakening momentum. Certain institutions and long-term holders continue to increase their holdings, and the market structure remains neutral to slightly strong.

The liquidity of small-cap coins has marginally improved but the upward momentum has failed. The TOTAL2 index has encountered resistance and is retreating again. The market capitalization share of OTHERS has stopped falling and is oscillating. The on-chain prosperity index is at 53, and overall it has not yet emerged from weakness.

The market is at the end of consolidation; short-term focus should be on capital breakthroughs, patiently waiting for signs of structural strengthening in small-cap coins and capital inflow in mainstream tokens.

Macroeconomic and Market Environment

The Federal Reserve's June meeting was relatively neutral, maintaining expectations for two rate cuts this year. However, due to factors such as tariffs, inflation adjustments, and economic downgrades, the path for rate cuts has become more conservative.

It is expected that in the third quarter of this year, due to oil prices, the implementation of tariffs, and the low base effect, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates immediately. After the impact of tariffs and the trend of oil prices become clear in mid-August, September may be the first point for a rate cut, and it is expected that core inflation may rise to 3.0% by the end of the year.

Funds Flow Analysis and Mainstream Cryptocurrency Market Structure

External Fund Flow

• ETF funds saw a net inflow of 2.8 billion dollars this week, with a significant increase in inflow size.
• The stablecoins issued an additional $2.3 billion this week, with an average daily issuance of $321 million, which is at a relatively high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• OTC Premium: Stablecoin premium continues to rise slightly.

Bitcoin

• Technical Analysis: The market is in a fluctuating upward range.
• On-chain chip distribution: The strength of chips above $103,000 has increased.

Ethereum

• The trend is relatively weaker compared to Bitcoin, ETH/BTC maintains a range-bound movement, and funds continue to flow back mainly into Bitcoin.
• On-chain data: The increase in the number of active addresses may indicate that the phase of bottoming out is complete.