From Exchange to On-Chain Strategy: The Growth Journey of a Data-Driven Trading Expert

In 2017, a young man from Taiwan entered the world of cryptocurrency. Two years later, he joined the listing department of a mainland exchange, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence. This experience not only gave him a profound understanding of the industry but also laid a solid foundation for his data analysis skills.

In 2022, this young man decided to leave the exchange and start his own business. At first, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market gradually cooled down, he keenly noticed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, shifting his focus to on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analytical tools and trading bots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.

This trader's strategy is unique: he does not focus on narrative valuation, but instead concentrates on on-chain monitoring and strict take-profit and stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear take-profit and stop-loss strategies, trading can avoid being influenced by subjective emotions.

At the same time, he also pointed out that trading logic needs to be continuously optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behavior of on-chain smart money, then expanded his focus to team trading behavior, and then to the key major addresses of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he constantly improved the accuracy of trading decisions.

Currently, his main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the foundation of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recently outstanding performance of MOODENG has become an important milestone for him: achieving a return of 5000 times in a short period. However, for him, the significance of MOODENG is not just about the profit.

The true value of MOODENG lies in validating the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's main addresses, it confirmed the trading theory of "following the main force." This practical outcome not only enhances the credibility of its strategy but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.

Data and Discipline: The Key to Successful Trading

During the trading process, the trader emphasized the standardized strategy of "doubling the capital and halving the stop loss," which is the core of their risk management. This strategy avoids market sentiment interference with clear rules and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, you only need to maintain a win rate of over 33% to achieve a positive EV. For example:

• Take profit scenario: Sell all after the assets double, achieving a 100% return.

• Stop-loss scenario: Sell all after the asset is halved, resulting in a 50% loss.

Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will show positive growth. His strategy is probability-based, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding fluctuations in trading decisions due to short-term market volatility.

At the same time, his team developed a series of tools, data-driven, to provide users with deep insights into market hotspots and the behavior of major players:

Token Insider Analysis

Analyze the holding structure and address behavior of tokens through big data. Its core functions include:

• Major player behavior identification: Filter addresses that exhibit transfer associations or collective trading characteristics, categorizing them as "gang" or "main force cluster".
• Snapshot and Trend Analysis: Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the concentration of token holdings to identify whether the main forces are accumulating.
• Behavioral model optimization: Combining the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends to form precise predictions of major operations.

FOMO Signal

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on a database of thousands of smart money addresses accumulated by the team. When a group of historically successful addresses collectively buys a certain token in a short period of time in the market, the FOMO signal will issue a prompt. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and determine whether the token has potential for short-term price increases.

These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the main accumulation level of a certain token has reached a peak, and the FOMO signal captures the collective buying behavior of several smart money investors, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with strategies of doubling down and stop-loss at half.

Data Strategy for Capturing Main Force Trends

In the cryptocurrency market, the main players profit through accumulation and distribution, and during this process, on-chain holding behaviors inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavior patterns of the main players through data. For example, during the accumulation period, the main players will exhibit specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.

However, as more people adopt similar strategies, the main players may adjust their strategies or even hide their behavior. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify the possible hidden behaviors of the main players. This trader believes that it is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is the key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

His strategy starts with tracking "smart money", which typically achieves a win rate of over 40% in the market and realizes significant profits. By using tools to filter these addresses, he established his own DAO and monitoring list with his team, continuously monitoring a group of high-performing address clusters.

The core methods of the strategy include:

• Identify collective actions: Team monitoring has found that certain address clusters act synchronously, including collective accumulation and distribution behaviors. This pattern becomes the basis for strategies.
• Position Control: When following the main force, avoid entering the top 100 holdings list to maintain a low profile, in order not to affect the main force's trading rhythm. Typically, the buying position should not exceed 0.5% of the market value of the token.
• Signal Response: When a collective entry into a certain token occurs among the clusters in the monitoring list, the strategy follows up with small probing amounts to avoid prematurely exposing its own actions.

The Trading Process of MOODENG

The successful trading of MOODENG is an important milestone for this trader team. In September 2024, the team monitored a large-scale entry of a long-performing address cluster into MOODENG and quickly began accumulating. Based on the previous trading methods of the main force, the team maintained small purchases and gradually followed up.

During the trading process, the main forces test the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple rises and pullbacks, while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. Traders monitor the changes in the holding ratio of these main addresses in real-time and find that the main forces will accumulate chips again after each pullback. This phenomenon has strengthened the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.

In the end, MOODENG rose from an initial small market value to hundreds of millions, and the team not only achieved high returns but also validated the trading theory of "following the main force" through this process.

Grasping the Capital Rotation in the Cryptocurrency Market

The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of funds may vary during different periods:

Mainstream Coin Rotation: Funds may concentrate on mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, during which on-chain liquidity is scarce and trading volume is low.

Emerging Public Chains and Hotspot Switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent shift from ETH to certain emerging public chains. Some public chains have become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to their high TPS and low Gas fees.

Meme Tracks and Narrative Shifts: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds can also rotate due to updates from launchpads or changes in narratives. For example, from the high-frequency PVP market of a certain public chain to new projects on other chains, the market's focus of funds is constantly shifting.

Using on-chain data tools, this trader's team monitors on-chain trading volumes and capital flows in real-time to assist in decision-making. For example, recent capital rotation indicates that emerging on-chain virtual economies (such as AI Agent and Virtuals) have become hotspots, prompting the team to adjust positions in a timely manner to follow capital trends.

Calmness and Discipline: The Key to Success in Trading

Bull markets provide a lot of opportunities, but they also come with high risks. In such markets, it is especially important to maintain calm and discipline:

Independent Judgment: The trader emphasizes that trading should be centered around validating strategies rather than catering to market sentiments. He points out that emotional fluctuations during a bull market can easily lead traders to be misled by the "eternal bull market" narrative, resulting in excessive optimism.

Timely Profit Taking: One major trap in a bull market is "reluctance to sell." Even when the market is rising, taking partial profits is key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if you miss out on higher points, managing risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.

Support for Stable Cash Flow: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through core business or quantitative funds can reduce dependence on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.

In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which includes: fear of missing out, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, this trader also shared his coping strategies:

Focus on Trading Framework: Trades that exceed the framework, even if profitable, are not considered successful. The core of trading is to validate strategies and refine understanding, rather than short-term gains.

Create a Calm Communication Environment: Avoid being influenced by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.

Remember the cyclical nature of the market: He pointed out that a bull market is not "eternal," but rather a cycle where opportunities and risks coexist. Even with strong bullish sentiment, it is essential to remain vigilant about risks, especially when there is only a single narrative in the market without clear supporting logic.

Methods to Quickly Improve Cognitive Level

This trader believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading one's social circle, and communicating with highly cognitive individuals can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking out of the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding people is an important way to improve oneself.

In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he seeks his own breakthrough points by continuously learning from the successful experiences and methods of others. The influence of communication with people is subtle and gradual. The actions and results of successful people around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his path. He advocates "upward socializing" by interacting with more outstanding individuals to discover more possibilities.

He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a book that has a profound impact on his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "having money work for you." He noted that this book breaks the traditional educational concept of "stable jobs" and inspires him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.

In addition to books, his progress is also attributed to other sources of knowledge. For example:

1. On-chain analysis KOLs: Some active on social media, they are on-chain data analysis experts who focus on on-chain data analysis to provide in-depth market insights or explain the logic of major players' behaviors from the perspective of market behavior and human analysis.

2. Social Media and Community: Quickly capture market trends by following active traders on social platforms and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.

In addition, this trader believes that the integration of perceptions between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2, exploring how to replicate successful models in Web3. This cross-domain thinking keeps him ahead in the exploration of new tracks.

Summary and Recommendations

Data-Driven and Continuous Optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been proven feasible in practice, but require continuous dynamic tuning. Moreover, whether it is the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of track narratives, sensitivity and adaptability must be maintained.

Patience and Discipline: Successful trading not only relies on strategy but also requires a stable mindset. Whether in a bull market or a bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment are essential to gaining a long-term advantage.

Establishing Cognitive and Cash Flow Pillars: With a stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more composed attitude. Through "continuous learning" and "layered upgrades".