Technical Analysis using the Matrix Method (2025/7/25) has become quite confusing 【楽天ウォレット】 | CoinDesk JAPAN

This article evaluates the Bitcoin market using six representative types of Technical Analysis: ① Pattern Analysis ② Moving Averages (9MA・25MA) ③ Ichimoku Cloud ④ Bollinger Bands ⑤ MACD ⑥ RSI, with a five-level evaluation (5→1: Strong→Weak), and assesses the strength of the market based on their average. I believe that fixed-point observation and objectivity are important in Technical Analysis. By combining multiple representative analysis methods, the aim is to eliminate subjectivity and enhance accuracy.

Summary

The overall rating is 2.8. It has dropped from last week's 4.5 to below 3.

Last time I mentioned that "there seems to be room for further upside" and "I have the image that we are accumulating strength for the next peak," but we are still continuing to move sideways and have not broken out.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is showing a bullish trend with three signals, and it is well supported by a retracement to the midpoint in pattern analysis, so there is still a possibility of a breakout to the upside. However, the MACD has formed a dead cross, and the RSI is showing signs of divergence, indicating that bullish and bearish signals are beginning to intertwine.

The fundamentals are bullish, but it wouldn't be surprising if there is another small adjustment before that.

We are using the BTCJPY chart from the Rakuten Wallet margin trading platform here. Please refer to the BTCUSD chart here (the link leads to TradingView's website).

Pattern Analysis

〈Daily〉〈4-hour〉Last time, the price rose slightly above the target of "the range double return of 17.9 million yen" that was mentioned as the upper limit, reaching 18.15 million yen. It was pointed out that it is "supported by the half pullback of 17.15 million yen since July 10, forming a triangle consolidation." There was a suggestion that "the support line shown during the upward phase overlaps with the triangle consolidation, indicating the possibility of updating new prices in the second half of next week," but it has not yet reached a breakout.

Rather, it seems that this support has slightly broken down, but it is supported at the aforementioned half-price level of 17.15 million yen, and it has not clearly broken down yet. It appears that it may break out either up or down soon, but there is also a possibility that it will continue to move sideways for a while longer. In short, at this point, there is still no clear direction, and it gives the impression that no decisive outcome has been reached.

Rating: 3

Moving Average

The 9MA is flat, and while it appears to be moving towards a death cross, this is influenced by the consolidation in the all-time high range. If it remains flat like this, there is a possibility that it might seem poised for a death cross but might not actually occur. In short, there is no clear direction.

Rating: 3

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

The price has entered a period where the cloud is twisted and is slightly heavy on the upside, but the buy signal of the Three Roles Turnaround continues.

Rating: 5

Bollinger Bands

The squeeze is easing, and the upward trend is pausing. The candlestick is approaching the middle line (20-day moving average). There is no image of reversing to a decline at this point, and there is also a possibility of turning upward again, but there is also a chance that the upward trend may end.

Rating: 3

MACD

Dead Cross.

Rating: 1

RSI

It has returned from the overbought zone to the 60s, but the slight divergence is concerning.

Rating: 2

Score

*This article is a reprint of the technical report for "Rakuten Wallet." *This article provides information for reference in investment decisions, but is not intended as a recommendation for specific stocks or an invitation to engage in investment activities. Additionally, it does not constitute investment solicitation or definitive predictions as a Rakuten Wallet. *The information provided may contain future projections; however, these are personal opinions of the sender and do not guarantee accuracy or reliability. We ask that you make the final investment decisions on your own.

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