2025 Bull Run Observation: This time, only the "Big Cake" may shine.

The expectation for a major bull run in the crypto market in 2025 is strong, with a high probability of starting in the second half of the year. However, the core logic of this bull run is vastly different from that of 2021: the main character may only be Bitcoin (BTC).

My core judgment:
BTC Target: The BTC price is expected to challenge $150,000 or more by the end of the year.
Market differentiation: The expectation for a scenario similar to 2021 where "the big coin rises and all altcoins soar" (BTC doubles, altcoins increase by dozens or hundreds of times) may not materialize.
Capital flow: This round of incremental funds (especially institutional/outside funds entering through ETFs) is highly concentrated in BTC. The expectations for "fund overflow effect" and "sector rotation speculation" may be difficult to realize. This is not a conjecture, but my real holding experience: so far in this round, BTC's returns far exceed those of altcoins (excluding luck factors from on-chain god-tier projects).
Shanzhai Dilemma: Currently, the holding experience of most altcoins is very poor, and the candlestick chart trend looks bad. The original intention of investing in altcoins is "high risk for high returns," but now the risks have significantly increased while expected returns are decreasing. Is it still worth heavily investing?

A bloody lesson: A friend who has been bottom fishing for 22 years (a spot trader) chose to heavily invest in altcoins, and to this day his assets have shrunk to 1/20 of his principal. Meanwhile, I chose to focus on BTC, resulting in a completely different outcome.

Advice for long-termists:
If you are seeking long-term, relatively reliable growth, BTC is currently the almost唯一 trusted core asset.
A large number of altcoins will disappear in the next cycle. Clinging to "long-termism" while playing with Meme coins may lead to an even worse outcome.

Summary: There are always opportunities in the market, but whether one can seize them depends on cognition and strategy. In this bull run, focusing on BTC may be a better solution. Changing one's thinking and adapting to new logic is key. Walking with experienced individuals who share similar judgments will enable more efficient opportunity capture.