ETH Weekend Market Analysis #eth#

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Scenario 1: Weak Rebound (Probability 40%) Trigger Conditions:
The price stabilizes around $3480-3500 (previous low support), with RSI recovering from oversold to above 40.
Whales are accumulating on dips (on-chain single-day increase > 5,000 ETH) or ETF fund inflows turn positive 57.
Target price level:
First resistance: $3550 (MA30) → $3620 (MA120), a breakout requires an increase in volume.

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Scenario 2: Downward fluctuation (probability 50%) Trigger conditions:
The price is constrained by MA30 ($3550), the MACD death cross continues, and trading volume continues to shrink.
The Federal Reserve's policy expectations suppress risk assets, and the earnings reports of US tech stocks transmit negative impacts.
Consolidation range: $3480 (intraday low) – $3550 (MA30), waiting for guidance from next week's non-farm data.

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Scenario 3: Accelerated Breakout (Probability 10%) Trigger Condition:
The volume has dropped below $3480, triggering a series of liquidations of long positions (with an open interest of $4.45 billion).
Geopolitical conflicts escalate or regulatory bearishness (such as SEC delaying ETF approvals) 57.
Target: $3380 (July low) → $3307 (200EMA) 67.

💎 Ultimate conclusion for the weekend ETH core volatility range: $3480-$3550, MA30 (3550) is the dividing line between bullish and bearish.
✅ Bullish Opportunity: Stabilize above $3480 and break through $3550 (MA30) on increased volume, you can take a light position to speculate on a rebound.
🔴 Bearish Dominance: Price continues to stay below MA30, rebound presents a short opportunity, stop loss set at 3580.
Trading mantra: Observe fluctuations on weekends, strong bearish if MA30 is below; if the previous low of 3480 is lost, decisively go short to guard against deep adjustments!
📅 Strategy Period: Valid for the next 48 hours, needs to be adjusted dynamically based on the liquidity during the US market hours. ⚠️ Warning: Leverage recommended ≤3x, avoid overnight heavy exposure!