Bit Deer Business Analysis: Self-Developed Chips and AI Computing Power Layout Driving Dual Wheels

Bit Deer recently released its operational data for November, where the highly anticipated A2 mining machine has begun mass production, with the first batch of 30,000 units sold. This marks an important breakthrough for the company in the mining machine manufacturing field.

In the past six months, Xiaolu has successfully completed the first batch of A2 and A3 mining machine chips. The self-developed chip capability is the core competitiveness of mining machine manufacturers. According to public information, the operating parameters of the A2 mining machine are leading in the current market. The A3 mining machine, which has not yet been officially released, is expected to become the largest single hash Computing Power product in the world with the best energy consumption ratio, and in the short term, it may mainly be used for the company's own Computing Power deployment.

As of the end of November, the company has deployed 895MW of power resources in the United States, Norway, and Bhutan. An additional 1645MW of projects are under construction, with 1415MW expected to be completed in the latter half of 2025. The company has also established a dedicated department responsible for the acquisition of power plant projects, with the expectation of adding over 1GW of power resources in 2026. It is noteworthy that the average electricity price of the company's self-operated power plants is less than $0.04 per kilowatt-hour, which has a significant advantage in the industry.

Based on the current operating data, the analysis model shows that the shutdown price of the Bitdeer self-operated mining farm is about $35,000 for Bitcoin. When the price of Bitcoin exceeds $150,000, the pre-tax profit growth rate of the self-operated mining farm will exceed the increase in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin reaches $200,000, the pre-tax profit margin of the self-operated mining farm may approach 80%.

The market still has two major questions regarding the first growth curve of Little Deer: first, the ratio of mining machine sales to self-use; second, the competitive relationship with other major mining machine manufacturers. Regarding the former, Little Deer expects that by mid-2025, the power field reserves will reach 2.3GW. If all equipped with A3 mining machines, the self-mining computing power could reach about 220EH/s, accounting for approximately 20% of the total network computing power at that time. Considering cash flow needs, the company may need to balance mining machine sales and self-mining computing power expansion.

In addition to traditional mining operations, Deer has begun to lay out the AI Computing Power market. The company is deploying NVIDIA H200 chips in its TIER3 data center for smart cloud services. In the short term, Deer plans to invest at least 200MW of electricity to deploy high-end AI chips and start providing services for clients such as MEGA 7.

From an investment perspective, BitDeer is currently in a good development opportunity period, and the first and second growth curves are expected to rise simultaneously. According to the valuation standard of $170 million/EH/s for mainstream mining companies in North America, assuming that BitDeer's actual self-operated mining farms reach 120-220 EH/s in the next two years, its market value could range between $20.4 billion and $37.4 billion, which represents an increase potential of 4.8 to 9.7 times compared to the current stock price.

However, investors also need to pay attention to potential risks, including the risk of Bitcoin price fluctuations and the risk of sanctions that may affect TSMC's current chips.