Crypto Market Outlook and Hotspot Analysis

1. Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) macro environment

A research institution predicts that the likelihood of the U.S. Solana ETF being approved in 2025 will exceed 77%. A senior researcher believes this prediction may even be underestimated. He pointed out that several institutions plan to apply to regulators for the listing of a spot Solana ETF in June 2024. As the market's attention to crypto ETFs increases, expectations for the approval of the Solana ETF have risen to 86%. This reflects the industry's optimistic expectations for the listing of more crypto asset ETFs, especially in a favorable policy environment. To successfully list, the Solana ETF needs to adopt a structure similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and avoid being classified as a security to evade stricter regulation.

(2) Web3 field

A well-known researcher has released a forecast for the crypto market in 2025. He believes that with the maturity of the MEV supply chain, exchanges and validators will face more intense competition, but the front end will still maintain a monopoly position. The total market value of the DePIN market is expected to grow fivefold by 2025. The application of crypto payment infrastructure in agency trading may be limited, and traditional payment channels will continue to exist. Stablecoins will transition from being the lubricant of DeFi to a true medium of exchange, with the number of active stablecoin addresses expected to exceed 50 million by 2025. At the same time, the boundaries between wallets and applications will become blurred, and in wallet-level chain abstraction applications, the importance of universal L2s may gradually weaken.

2. Hot Events

(1) macro environment

Recently, a tech entrepreneur sparked a discussion about crypto trading taxes on social media. He mentioned that an investor purchased a token for $7,000 and staked it for 3 months, achieving returns of up to 6,900%. However, when the investor sold and reinvested the profits into another project, he encountered a developer withdrawal and ultimately could only liquidate 10% of the funds. The entrepreneur asked the investor if he could deduct the gas fees incurred during the minting process to offset short-term capital gains tax. This statement quickly attracted market attention, causing the related token to surge by 124% in a short period.

(2) Web3 field

A certain Ethereum charity fund recently completed a record-breaking transaction, selling 3,690 ETH and earning $12.47 million. This is the fund's first sale in 10 months and the largest transaction in its history. The batch of ETH came from an early investor who participated in the Ethereum ICO in July 2015, who received 100,000 ETH at the genesis block. To date, this investor has sold 14,990 ETH at an average price of $2,409, most of which was done through the charity fund. Currently, the investor still holds 85,000 ETH, valued at approximately $293.8 million. This transaction has sparked renewed market interest in Ethereum.

3. Hot Topics

With the rapid rise of a certain AI agent on the crypto market social platform, its market value soared to 600 million USD in a short period, triggering an in-depth analysis of the competitive advantages of AI agents in the market. Meanwhile, as a leading provider of data aggregation and packaging infrastructure, a certain DAO and its tokens have also garnered attention. As the demand for data from both human and AI users increases, the value of data aggregation is significantly rising. Successful AI agents rely on unique models and strong data scraping capabilities, which allow them to analyze multi-source information in real-time and generate effective market insights. Data aggregation platforms support AI agents by providing data resources, helping them compete in the market. Although the current market value of the certain DAO is only 32 million USD, its potential is considered enormous in the context of the continuously evolving AI agent economy. With the launch of new features and incentive mechanisms, its token value is expected to rise further, attracting more users to participate.

2. Hot Projects

1. Project Introduction

An open-source AI agent and machine learning model platform, serving as an upgraded version of the previous framework. This platform integrates a certain public blockchain and vector database, providing CI/CD support for Kubernetes and Docker. This enables users to develop and deploy applications more efficiently, leveraging modern cloud-native technologies to optimize the software development process.

The project was initiated by a well-known developer. The market capitalization briefly surpassed $70 million, hitting an all-time high, with a 24-hour increase of 208%.

III. Sector Rotation

1. Hot Sectors

2. Internal of the sector