Bitcoin rebound is weak, the crypto market is uneven, FARTCOIN is experiencing a big pump.

Market Overview

Macroeconomic Environment

Recently, the erratic nature of U.S. tariff policies has triggered market turmoil. This move has begun to weaken investor confidence in the U.S. economy, and it is expected to continue to affect market trends in the coming months. Meanwhile, U.S. bonds and the dollar have fallen back into a downward channel, while U.S. stocks have experienced an unusual surge, a phenomenon typically seen in the middle of a bear market. The cryptocurrency market has also undergone severe fluctuations.

Market Performance

This week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp rebound after a significant drop, but the market overall lacks clear hot spots. Some small tokens suffered a crash due to being delisted. The five tokens with the highest gains are XCN (110%), FARTCOIN (100%), GAS (60%), LAYER (40%), and UXLINK (30%). The tokens with the largest declines include BERA (40%), EOS (20%), MEW (20%), W (20%), and NEAR (20%).

It is worth noting that BERA, as a representative of DeFi public chains, has broken through its long-term support level, with its on-chain stablecoin decreasing by $300 million in the past week. FARTCOIN, as a meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, has surged several times against the trend, becoming the leader of this rebound. BABY, as a staking representative in the Bitcoin ecosystem, saw its market value return to $800 million after listing, but the feasibility of re-staking in this track is in question.

On-chain Data Analysis

The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin market has stagnated, leading to a rapid contraction of market liquidity. The total market value of altcoins has significantly shrunk from 1 trillion dollars at the beginning of the year to around 600 billion dollars. This decline has had a wide-ranging impact, with almost all sectors experiencing significant depreciation.

Institutional funds experienced a slight net outflow, and global markets are permeated with panic sentiment. The market value of stablecoins has also declined, reflecting a significant increase in investors' risk aversion.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is currently at 1.6, close to the bottom range, indicating that the market as a whole is in a loss state. When this indicator is greater than 6, it is usually seen as a market top, while less than 2 is considered a bottom area.

Futures Market Situation

The futures funding rate remains at a low of 0.00% this week. Generally, a rate between 0.05-0.1% indicates a high level of long leverage, which may suggest a short-term market top; a rate between -0.1% and 0% indicates a high level of short leverage, which may suggest a short-term market bottom.

The open interest of Bitcoin futures continues to decline, indicating that major funds are withdrawing from the market. The futures long-short ratio is 1.9, reflecting a market sentiment tilted towards greed. Generally, a long-short ratio below 0.7 indicates fear, while above 2.0 indicates greed, but this indicator is highly volatile and has limited reference value.

Spot Market Trends

This week, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated violently, while the altcoin market lacks new investment narratives. Uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies has intensified pressure on global financial markets, and this weakness has spread to most asset classes. In this macro environment, the cryptocurrency market is also struggling to stand out and continues to be trapped in a bear market.